供應鏈風險評估模式建立之研究-以資訊電子產業為例

Abstract

產業分工與全球化因素影響，使企業與顧客、供應商分布在不同國家與地區，形成一個複雜與全球化的供應鏈網路，並導致整體供應鏈的風險大幅提升。企業如何做好供應鏈風險評估，已是目前聚焦的研究重點。那整體供應鏈流程包含採購、製造、配銷與回收階段，然而先前供應鏈風險管理研究上，大部分著重於單一階段進行討論，缺乏以整個供應鏈網路模式來進行研究，且假設風險因子之間為獨立、互不關連，也並未考慮整體供應鏈網路風險因子關聯特性，因而無法正確評估風險事件發生時所帶來的衝擊影響程度，自然無法進一步有效擬定出適當因應的風險管理策略。因此，本研究將針對「如何有效評估供應鏈風險程度」主要問題進行研究。\r\n那針對此問題來進行研究，本研究提出一個整體供應鏈風險評估模式以有效評估供應鏈的風險程度。首先透過文獻探討確認整理出供應鏈的風險因子，並以SCOR模式（Supply Chain Operations Reference Model）的將風險因子歸類於採購（Source）、製造 (Make)、配銷（Deliver）與回收（Return）各階段內；接著藉由風險因子的發生率、嚴重度、難檢度，應用模糊失效模式與效應分析法(Fuzzy Failure Modes and Effects Analysis；Fuzzy FMEA)篩選出重要的風險因子；再使用模糊決策實驗室分析法(Fuzzy Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory；Fuzzy DEMATEL)建構出供應鏈流程中重要的風險因子間之關連性；由於風險因子間具有相互影響關係，本研究並採用分析網路程序法(Analytic Network Process；ANP)計算風險因子的影響權重。最後結合上述Fuzzy FMEA、Fuzzy DEMATEL與ANP方法，建立出整體供應鏈風險評估模式，並就由計算出風險因子對企業供應鏈的影響度，排列出風險因子的影響度大小，讓企業能夠知道風險因子的優先順序。這將協助企業有效進行供應鏈風險的評估，讓企業瞭解目前所處供應鏈潛在的風險，並據以研擬相關的因應策略，以降低其對供應鏈整體與成員的衝擊。

As part of the division of labor and globalization, enterprises, customers and suppliers are located in various countries and regions. Complex, globalized supply chain network have greatly increased total supply chain risks. Therefore, improving the management of risk associated with the supply chain has become important to many enterprises. And whole supply chain have include four stage, source, make, deliver and return, but previous supply chain risk management research has focused mainly on single-stage risk factors and assumed all risk factors to be mutually as independent and also not consider the whole supply chain risk factors associated characteristics. The lack of consideration for these relationships will lead to incorrect measuring risks and applying improper risk management strategies to solve these risks. Therefore this research concentrates on a topic: How to effectively assess risks.\r\n About the main issue, this research will propose an effectively risk assessment model. First, the research will consider whole supply chain risk factors from literature and then classify these factors into source stage’s factors, make stage’s factors, deliver stage’s factors and return stage’s factors in accordance with SCOR Model (Supply Chain Operations Reference Model) framework. Second, Fuzzy Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (Fuzzy FMEA), Fuzzy Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (Fuzzy DEMATEL) and Analytic Network Process (ANP) will be adopted and integrated to develop a supply chain risk assessment model.\r\n The results in this research will enable enterprises to determine in timely manner the effects of various risk events, enabling them to develop strategies to reduce their effect on the all members of the supply chain.