中台日防空識別區現狀與釣魚台爭議解決可能性之研究

Abstract

防空識別區設置的主要目的，為掌握靠近本國領域範圍的航空器之來歷與目的，以確保國家安全。至於釣魚台則為台灣附屬島嶼，因歷史種種因素，成為中台日領土爭議的焦點之一，基於國際現實趨勢，本論文將嘗試以賽局理論及危機處理等分析中台日防空識別區議題，作為釣魚台爭議解決可能性之研究。\n 1972年美國將釣魚台連同琉球的管轄權移交日本，來自中國大陸與台灣的抗議即不曾間斷。2012年9月11日，日本政府將釣魚台「國有化」，更是引起強烈抗議，中國大陸各地爆發激烈反日示威，中國大陸及日本艦艇、戰機等亦密集出現在附近海域，台灣則有蘇澳漁會發動75艘漁船出海保釣及遊行抗議活動。至關協商會談部分，中國大陸與日本政府間的會談迄今仍然中斷，且雙方維權動作不斷，也積極訪問己方及對方盟友與拋出新的議題，藉以爭取支持，及臆測對方意向與能力，似乎係為日後談判作準備；而台灣雖與日本達成「台日漁業協議」，但仍未能解決所有關於釣魚台的議題；至於中國大陸與台灣目標則是一致的，均認為釣魚台主權非屬日本所有，但礙於政治現實的考量，確有合作維權之困難。\n 有鑒於釣魚台議題主要涉及「資源」及「戰略」兩大部分，為達利益均衡與共享，從防空識別區的賽局角度來看，三方對峙仍會因為戰略同盟、民族主義、經濟的關係而持續，必須以「擱置爭議、建立互信、共榮發展」為方案，建立合作框架與具體工作內容，才能求得釣魚台議題最適的「解」，消弭東亞安全威脅。\n 綜上，釣魚台從過去被稱為荒島到現在成為中國大陸、台灣及日本等三方競逐的焦點，主要的關鍵在於資源與戰略關係，面對三方在經濟上的競爭與合作、在民族主義上的激化及對立，與戰略同盟的互信及演變，短期內首應先減少民族主義的對立局面，再從經濟進行改革與合作，建立互信機制，才能滿足三方對釣魚台主權爭議的目的，進一步邁向永久解決目標。

ADIZ (Air defense identification zone) is setting up for the purpose of ensuring the national security, to grasp the origin and attempting of aircraft near its territory. As for the Diaoyutais, an island group that is part of Taiwan, it becomes a focus among mainland China, Taiwan and Japan, as a territorial dispute, owing to series factors in history. Based on the trend of international reality, this study would try to analyse the issue of ADIZ among mainland China, Taiwan and Japan by Game Theory and Crisis Management, to discuss the possibility resolution of Diaoyutais dispute.\n In 1972, The United States handed over the jurisdiction of Diaoyutais with Ryukyu to Japan, induces endless protests from Taiwan and mainland China till now. On September 11, 2012, Japan government nationalized Diaoyutais, instantly lead to violent anti-Japanese demonstrations erupted across mainland China, lots of warships and fighters crowded from Japan and mainland China, 75 fishing ships set out for Diaoyutais protection by Su-ao Fishermans Asocciation and preotest movement from Taiwan. As for negotiation or talks, all of communication were halted between mainland China and Japan. The sovereignty safeguarding continued, visiting allies or accessing one’s own arranged, and new topics thrown by mainland China and Japan, which are trying to endeavour supports and realise the speculative intention and abilities of other’s, and seems to prepare negotiation someday. Although Taiwan and Japan have reached "Taiwan-Japan Fisheries Agreement", but still failed to resolve all issues about Diaoyutais. Basically, mainland China and Taiwan have same target of the issue regarding as Diaoyutais not belonging to Japan, but difficult to safeguard sovereignty together under the reality of political circumstance.\n The major issues involved in the Diaoyutais are "Resources" and "Strategy". To achieve the balance of interests and sharing, from the game perspective views of ADIZ, tripartite would still confront for the factors of strategic alliance relationship, nationalism, economy, and they should follow " Shelving disputes, Establishing mutual trust, and developing common prosperity" program to establish cooperation framework with specific works, in order to obtain an optimal "solution" to eliminate the threats of East Asian security.\n In summary, the Diaoyutais has been known as deserted islands before, and becomes a focus under competing among mainland China, Taiwan and Japan, for "Resources" and "Strategy". Facing upon the economy, nationalism, and strategic alliance, tripartite should reduce nationalist confrontation first, deal with economic reform and cooperation later, and establish mutual trust mechanism finally, to meet the purpose of tripartite in Diaoyutais sovereignty dispute，and to make further progress towards permanent settlement goals.