預售屋、新成屋與中古屋之偏好選擇

Abstract

住宅選擇是每一個家戶都會面臨到的問題，過去文獻發現購屋者先選擇租屋或購屋，若決定購屋，則先決定於何區位購屋，然後再決定購買何種房屋類型之房屋，然而卻未曾提及購屋者於不同市場類型住宅間之選擇。預售屋、新成屋以及中古屋等不同市場類型之住宅，各自隱含不同的效用及風險，影響著購屋者之選擇，因此本研究試圖討論購屋者於不同市場類型住宅間之選擇與偏好。\n本研究採用內政部營建署「住宅需求動向調查」資料，利用混合多項羅吉特模型探討不同限制條件下，預售屋、新成屋與中古屋之個體選擇行為。實證結果顯示，投資者較偏好於購買知覺風險較高之預售屋，期待以高知覺風險換取高的報酬；教育程度較高者，因對居住品質要求愈高，因此傾向於選擇設備新穎之預售屋與新成屋；家戶平均月所得較高之購屋者，負擔能力較高，因此選擇總價較高之預售屋機率較高，其次為新成屋。此外，搜尋頻率愈高者，選擇預售屋之機率愈高，因預售屋無實體存在，預售屋購屋者為降低其知覺風險，將花費更高之搜尋成本。在價格彈性分析部分，實證結果顯示預售屋之競爭力最高，但預售屋之受衝擊力亦最高，而中古屋之競爭力於三種市場類型中居次，但中古屋衝擊力最小，因此，當單價屬性發生變動時，較不影響中古屋購屋者之選擇，但卻大幅影響預售屋購屋者之選擇機率。

Every household would face housing choice, the past housing choice study founded that households decided tenure choice first, if they decides to buy a house, they first decided on what location, and then decided what type of housing to buy, but it has not been mentioned the housing choice among different residential market types. Pre-sale houses, newly constructed houses and existing houses implied different effectiveness and risks, affecting the choice of homebuyers. This article tried to discuss homeowners’ choice among different residential market types.\nThis study use Construction and Planning Agency, "Housing Demand Survey of 2009" data, use mixed multinomial logit model, investigated under different constraints, housing choice behavior among pre-sale houses, newly constructed houses and existing houses. The empirical results showed that investors prefer higher perceived risk in buying pre-sale housing, looking for a high perceived risk and high rewards; higher education level, due to the higher quality requirements for living, so they preferred pre-sale houses and newly constructed houses. Homebuyers which have higher average monthly household income, have more affordable ability, so the probability of choosing pre-sale houses are much higher, followed by the newly constructed houses. In addition, the higher search frequency were more likely to choose pre-sale houses because pre-sale houses for sale no physical presence, pre-sale housing homebuyers in order to reduce their perceived risk, would spend more search costs. In the price elasticity analysis, empirical results showed that the pre-sale houses had the highest competitiveness, but the impact force was also the highest, while the existing houses market, the competitiveness of the third types was the second place, and the competitiveness of the existing houses was the smallest. Thus, when a change in unit price attribute, does not affect existing houses homebuyers, but significantly affected the choice probability of pre-sale houses homebuyers.