兩岸三通對於台北市房價之影響

Abstract

2008年5月，在新政府上台後兩岸間經貿往來越來越密切，兩岸間勢必將面對一個新的互動關係，也將對兩岸產業間的互動產生直接及間接的衝擊。在兩岸交流日益活絡的情形下，熱錢湧入，包括陸資、外資、與回流的台商資金等「三資」正悄悄的進入台灣。市場各種訊息顯示，這股錢潮對房市、股市已迅速產生相當的衝擊。在國際資金眼中，台灣已成了佈局大陸大戰略棋局中極優質的選擇，本文研究之目的在於探討兩岸三通後對於台北市房價之影響。\n 本研究係採用2000年至2009年之信義房屋房價指數資料為樣本，藉由迴歸分析來做實證研究。實證結果顯示，台北市人口總數對於房價變動的影響為負向影響；股價加權指數、平均每人國內生產毛額、台北市消費者物價指數、台北市家庭收支、匯率及兩岸三通等，對於台北市房價均有顯著正向之影響；而台北市結婚對數、勞動力參與率及金融海嘯等，則對於台北市房價的變化無顯著關係。

As new government inaugurated in May 2008, economic and trade exchanges cross Taiwan Strait became intent. A new and friendly interaction model across the strait was born and it would inevitably cast direct and indirect impacts on business activities of both sides. Hot Money, including Chinese funds, international funds and oversea Taiwanese funds are gradually inflowing to Taiwan. Market statistics show that, this wave of Hot Money has had rapid and significant impacts in property market and stock market. From international investment community’s point of view, Taiwan has become a quality target to deploy into the gigantic market of China. The purpose of this research aims to discuss the impacts Three Links will have impacts on Taipei \nCity property market.\n\nThis research adapts housing price index from 2000 to 2009 provided by Sinyi Real Estate, using regression analysis to provide empirical studies. Empirical studies show that, population of Taipei city versus housing price alteration is negative correlated, where as TAIEX, GDP, CPI, Family Income & Expenditure, Exchange Rates and Three Links have direct impacts on Taipei City property market. As for Marriages, Labor Force Participation Rate and financial crisis show no significant correlation in Taipei city property market.