名目所得目標區政策的穩定效果：以名目利率作為貨幣政策的操作目標

Abstract

現實生活中，泰勒法則已廣泛的被美國、德國等工業化大國所實行，即中央銀行利用名目利率取代傳統的貨幣供給來執行各種干預政策。故本文嘗試在隨機總體模型之架構下，以目標區理論的觀點來探討：釘住名目所得與釘住名目利率，兩種貨幣政策的相對穩定效果。相較於Fang and Lai (2002)的結果，若以名目利率作為貨幣政策的操作目標，則面對不同來源的衝擊，我們發現：總合需求的實質貨幣彈性並非影響釘住名目所得指標之穩定效果的關鍵。我們亦發現：當經濟體系遭受總合供給面的衝擊時，名目所得目標區的實施對於名目所得及物價的波動具有穩定的效果，唯需付出使產出波動加劇之代價。反之，當經濟體系遭受總合需求面的衝擊時，名目所得目標區則具有政策之優越性，不論對於名目所得、產出及物價的波動，均會具有穩定的效果。此一不同的結果或許可作為政府實行目標區政策之參考。

Since the Taylor rule is widely adopted by the U. S., Germany and some other industrialized nations, this means that the central bank conducts nominal interest rate instead conventional money supply as monetary policy. Based on a simple stochastic macro model, this paper addresses the relative stabilizing performance between targeting nominal income and targeting nominal interest rate from the viewpoint of target zones. Contrast to the conclusion found in Fang and Lai (2002), upon the different shocks but stabilizing through Taylor rule, we find that the elasticity of aggregate demand to real money balances is not the factor for the desirability of targeting nominal income. We also find that a nominal income target zone tends to lower price variability at the expense of higher output variability when output supply shock. However, when the economy experiences a output demand shock, a nominal income target zone will actually lower the variability of both domestic prices and output relative to a floating nominal income policy.