美中臺三角關係發展的國際政治經濟學分析

Abstract

美中臺三角關係的發展，對於全球與區域發展深具重大的政經意涵。本文的目的在以國際政治經濟學的途徑，檢視美中臺三角關係的變遷。透過理論分析，此等研究成果方具累積性，否則易淪為「新聞分析」或是「情報分析」。\n 霸權穩定論是國際政治經濟學中新現實主義者的重要論述，其不僅是一種學術理論，其蘊含的政策意義更指引著現今霸權美國的對外作為。霸權穩定論所描繪的大國行為規律以及預測，亦成為觀察國際關係現象的重要指標。\n 歐巴馬執政以來的美國亞太戰略的發展，反映在美國對於亞太區域的高調重視，其「全球戰略重心東移」的意涵更涉及美中臺三角關係及亞太區域的秩序，自是引發外界的高度重視。\n 本論文的研究結果顯示，當前美國的亞太戰略發展，相當符合霸權穩定論的若干觀點：首先，目標上遏制中國崛起以確認其亞太區域之霸權維持；再者，實踐上更體現如「境外平衡者」等「成本負擔轉移」的作為。最後，於大國互動的夾縫中求生存的臺灣，更應把握理論的意涵，其對外行為必須更為審慎。\n新功能主義則是立足歐洲整合經驗的主流理論，其不僅是一種學理，所蘊含的實踐意義更一度被視為官方哲學。學派所描繪的國家行為規律及啟示，亦成為觀察相似經驗國家互動的重要指標。\n 1980年代以來的兩岸關係一直有「政冷經熱」的特色。馬英九的「九二共識」致使海峽雙方有進一步深化制度性協商的基礎。惟兩岸始終存在的主權分歧並不容忽視，其亦成為制約彼此持續穩定交流的最大變數。\n 本論文的研究結果顯示，當前兩岸關係的發展，相當符合新功能主義的若干觀點：首先，交流的「擴溢」並非絕對，「一個中國」的政治分歧相當有可能致使雙方關係「溢回」；再者，理論的政策啟示更指引雙方未來交流的實際作為。臺灣應切實把握學理意涵，其對外行為必須更為審慎與務實。\n\n關鍵詞：美中臺三角關係、國際政治經濟學、霸權穩定論、亞太戰略、境外平衡者、新功能主義、整合、「一個中國」原則、九二共識

The change of the Washington-Beijing-Taipei Relations is a noteworthy worldwide issue. The research purpose of the doctoral dissertation is to analyze the development of the triangular relationship via the International Political Economy.\n The hegemonic stability theory is a brilliant exposition about international political economy of neorealism and its theoretical implications has guided U.S. foreign policy. The hegemonic stability theory presents the capability of much more explaining and analyzing international relations. \nWith the rising of the Asia Pacific region in the 21st century, America’s strategic center is turning to the East. The Obama Administration’s strategy of its eastward shift will inevitably have an significant impact on the triangle relations among the United States, China and Taiwan as well as the order of this entire region.\n This research shows that the development of Asia-Pacific Strategy of Obama Administration is quite consistent with the main viewpoints of the hegemonic stability theory. The goal of the Obama Administration is to constraint China in order to sustain and strengthen America’s leadership in the Asia-Pacific region. Therefore, offshore balancing is an important strategy to maintain its preponderance. According to practical theoretical meanings, Taiwan must act more prudently in pursuit of survival and power between great powers.\n Based on the experience of European integration, neofunctionalism is the mainstream integration theory. It can provide some important indicators to analyze the similar situations of different states.\n Ever since President Ma Ying-jeou won the election in March of 2008, with his 1992 consensus, the institutionalization of Cross-Strait consultation has been restarted in order to strengthen mutual peaceful development. However, there has been a dispute over sovereignty in the Taiwan-China relations and it has also become the most destabilizing factor.\n This research shows that the development of the Cross-Strait relations is quite consistent with the main viewpoints of neofunctionalism. The spillover effects will not occur automatically in the process of the growing economic integration. The acknowledgement of the One China policy is the main variable in the Taiwan-China relations. It could produce spill-back effects. The theoretical implications can guide mutual active engagement. According to practical theoretical meanings, Taiwan must act more prudently in pursuit of survival and development.\n\nKeywords: Washington-Beijing-Taipei Relations, International Political Economy, hegemonic stability theory, Asia-Pacific Strategy, offshore balancer , neofunctionalism, integration, One China policy, 1992 Consensus