台灣民主化經驗與中國未來的民主化——以杭亭頓的理論架構分析之

Abstract

杭亭頓(Samuel P. Huntington)在《第三波：二十世紀末的民主化浪潮》(The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century)一書中試圖解析一群特定的國家在一段特定時間內的轉型情況，其中包含這些國家走向民主的原因、方式、進行與影響，進而了解這些轉型對世界各國民主的持久、前途、走向所具有的意義。本文旨在藉由杭亭頓的理論，分析臺灣民主化的經驗，並探討中國未來民主化的可能。其中，相當重要的發現為：第四波民主化是否可能在中國發生，必然取決於政治領導，因為「經濟發展使得民主成為可能；政治領導使得民主成為真實」。

In The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century, Samuel P. Huntington explains the transformation of a group of countries in a certain period, particularly the attributes, ways, progresses, and impacts of these countries on the way to democracies in order to show the significance of these transformations for other democratic countries in the world. This article tries to borrow Huntington`s theory to study Taiwan`s democratic experiences and the prospects for China`s democratization in the future. One of the key findings is that whether the fourth wave of democratization could take place in China will be subject to the leadership. Economic development makes democracy probable, and political leadership makes democracy a reality.