陳水扁政府與馬英九政府的中國戰略之比較與檢討

Abstract

進入 21 世紀後，台灣藍綠兩大政治陣營最大差異在於對中國的戰略與政策；2008 年5 月政黨輪替，也象徵台灣的中國戰略之「典範轉移」。執政八年的陳水扁政府無論從戰略觀與政策取向，已發展出清晰的脈絡架構，並有具體的實踐成果與挑戰。相較之下，雖然剛上台兩個月多，馬英九政府已經迅速構建其中國戰略與政策。透過比較與檢討，本文希望對照出台灣兩任政府在中國政策的戰略差異以及政策實踐。相對於陳水扁政府的中國戰略可用「主權清晰、政經平衡」來概括，馬英九政府的中國戰略則可用「主權模糊、經濟優先」來形容。本文總結，現階段兩岸關係發展有三項發展趨勢以及台灣未來所必須面對的兩項風險。三項發展趨勢：一、兩岸關係將趨向緩和；二、兩岸互動節奏由中國主導；三、台灣對中國將快速開放。兩項風險：一、台灣主體性弱化，二、潛藏的兩岸主權衝突。

In the wake of the 21th century, the most significant difference between the Blue Camp and the Green Camp of two major political forces in Taiwan lies in their strategies and policies toward China. The power alternation in May, 2008, signified a “paradigm shift” of Taiwan’s China strategy. In the past eight years of ruling, the Chen Shui-bian administration had developed a clear policy framework as well as concrete results and challenges of its implementation. In comparison, although in power for only more than two months, the Ma Ying-jeou administration has rapidly articulated its strategy and policies toward China. Through comparison and review, this paper is to make it clear the differences between the Chen Shui-bian administration and the Ma Ying-jeou administration in terms of their strategies and policy implementation results toward China. The China strategy of the Chen Shui-bian administration can be characterized as “Strategic Clarity on Sovereignty, Balance of Politics and Economy,” while the China strategy of the Ma Ying-jeou administration can be described as “Strategic Ambiguity on Sovereignty, Economy First.” This paper concludes three trends of current Cross-strait relations and two risks that Taiwan faces in the future. Three trends: approaching détente of the Cross-strait relation; the tempo of Cross-strait interaction being dominated by China; the acceleration of Taiwan’s social and economic opening to China.Two risks: the weakening of Taiwan consciousness; latent Cross-strait conflicts over sovereignty.