Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://ah.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/61486


Title: 中國大陸不動產市場是否存在房價泡沫 -北京、上海、天津與重慶的實證分析
Authors: 邱姿文
Chiou, Tz Wen
Contributors: 林祖嘉
邱姿文
Chiou, Tz Wen
Keywords: 不動產價格泡沫
狀態空間模型
中國房價
Date: 2012
Issue Date: 2013-11-01 11:43:12 (UTC+8)
Abstract: 1998年中國大陸改革開放不動產市場後,由於政府大力地推動城鎮化與不動產市場改革以及中國大陸人均GDP的成長快速等原因,使房價快速上漲。2008年金融危機後至2012年時,中國大陸房價上漲約63.31%,但居民收入僅增加55.66%,顯示房價上漲速度超越所得上漲速度,因此,本研究擬由資產現值模型建立房價基要價值,並由狀態空間模型推估泡沫價格,探討北京市、天津市、上海市與重慶市不動產市場是否存在泡沫化的現象。經由1998年至2012年的家戶所得推估泡沫價格後,再以向量誤差修正模型與Granger因果關係檢定檢驗泡沫價格與貨幣供給額、預期物價指數、購屋貸款利率、住房開發投資額與前期房價成長率間的關係。
實證結果指出,北京泡沫化幅度變動劇烈,2012年第2季泡沫化約57%,由於中國大陸政府對北京執行政策較為嚴格,因而使北京市的房價受到政府政策的影響而產生較劇烈地波動。天津的泡沫價格則是由2004年開始轉為正值,並於2006年第2季達到第一波高峰。上海房價呈現穩定上升,其泡沫化程度約維持在45%上下,其泡沫化高點出現在2010年,泡沫價格占房屋價格約46%。重慶房價於2004年開始大幅上升,並於2011年出現泡沫高峰,比重約為40%。另外,預期通貨膨脹率與住房開發投資額為Granger領先於北京、天津與重慶的泡沫價格,表示政府能藉由控制北京、天津與重慶的預期通貨膨脹與不動產開發投資市場,來降低不動產的泡沫價格。而上海的購屋貸款利率、前期房價成長率與泡沫價格為雙向因果關係,貨幣供給則為Granger領先於上海泡沫價格,表示政府若能藉由控制上海的貨幣供給與購屋貸款利率,降低其泡沫價格。
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國立政治大學
經濟學系
99258011
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