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Title: 中國大陸不動產市場是否存在房價泡沫 -北京、上海、天津與重慶的實證分析
Authors: 邱姿文
Chiou, Tz Wen
Contributors: 林祖嘉
Chiou, Tz Wen
Keywords: 不動產價格泡沫
Date: 2012
Issue Date: 2013-11-01 11:43:12 (UTC+8)
Abstract: 1998年中國大陸改革開放不動產市場後,由於政府大力地推動城鎮化與不動產市場改革以及中國大陸人均GDP的成長快速等原因,使房價快速上漲。2008年金融危機後至2012年時,中國大陸房價上漲約63.31%,但居民收入僅增加55.66%,顯示房價上漲速度超越所得上漲速度,因此,本研究擬由資產現值模型建立房價基要價值,並由狀態空間模型推估泡沫價格,探討北京市、天津市、上海市與重慶市不動產市場是否存在泡沫化的現象。經由1998年至2012年的家戶所得推估泡沫價格後,再以向量誤差修正模型與Granger因果關係檢定檢驗泡沫價格與貨幣供給額、預期物價指數、購屋貸款利率、住房開發投資額與前期房價成長率間的關係。
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