俄羅斯金融寡頭在民主化與經濟改革的角色：1992-1999

Abstract

本論文旨在探討1992至1999年期間，俄羅斯金融寡頭(Financial Oligarchs)的崛起與互動，及其對俄羅斯民主化與經濟改革的影響，期能對台灣企業直接投資俄羅斯之風險評估提供重要參考資訊。本論文將以克里姆林宮政治(Kremlin politics)作爲中心分析概念(central organizing concept)，採用「利益團體研究途徑」(Interest group approach)與「克里姆林宮政治研究途徑」(Kremlin politics approach)兩種研究途徑來進行分析。 本論文的主要論點爲：蘇聯解體後，俄羅斯經濟改革政策的形成，受到金融工業集團與克里姆林宮的政治勢力互動所主導。此一假設命題可再引申爲下列邏輯相關的子命題： 〈一〉在俄羅斯經濟凋敝的情況下，政府爲了振弊起衰而推動經濟改革，金融工業集團乃應運而生。 〈二〉金融工業集團挾其雄厚的財力，透過民主化的機制而成爲國內最具影響力的壓力團體，進而影響經改政策的走向。 〈三〉由於相關法令的不健全、官僚與金融工業集團的掛勾而形成了一個對俄羅斯政經發展不利的「寡頭資本主義」。金融工業集團間的互動與克里姆林宮內部的權力鬥爭息息相關，從而牽動著政府的經濟改革政策。

The purpose of this study is to explore the rise of and the interaction among the financial oligarchs and its impact on Russia’s democratization and economic reforms from 1992 to 1999. It is expected that the results of this study offer some valuable findings helpful to Taiwanese entrepreneurs in their evaluation of the risks involved in the direct investment in Russia. Guided by the central organizing concept, the \"Kremlin politics,\" this study adopts two approaches-the interest group approach and the Kremlinological approach. The hypothesis of this study will be as follows: Russia`s policy for economic reforms has been formulated under the influence of the interaction between the financial-industrial groups and the Kremlin political forces. This hypothesis can be further developed into the following logically interlocked sub-propositions: (1) Efforts of the Post-Soviet Russia`s government to revitalize economy through economic reforms led to the rise of financial-industrial groups. (2) With their huge financial capacities and through the newly created democratic mechanism, financial-industrial groups have become the most powerful pressure groups and have exerted great impact on the orientation of Russia`s economic reforms. (3) Owing to the unsoundness of concerning laws, the linkage of bureaucrats and financial-industrial groups forms an \"oligarchic capitalism,\" which is very harmful to Russia`s economic development. The interaction among financial-industrial groups is intertwined with power struggles within the Kremlin, and, in turn, is involved in the decision-making of economic reforms.