中共「十八大」黨政菁英甄補：預測、評估與反思

Abstract

中共召開「十八大」前，各界預測人事雖有相當成果，但仍有不少研判失準。預測準確固值肯定，但判斷失準亦應檢視。值此人事改組完成之際，透過文獻檢視、比較研究與多元迴歸分析反思，有助提升學術分析和解讀能力。此外，胡錦濤卸任總書記，辭退軍委主席，為中共接班制度運作立下規範，有助減少元老干政。雖然中共現階段人事改組仍不乏派系運作與妥協，且團派在政治局常委會呈現弱勢，但2017年中共「十九大」，團派可望會有更多參與空間與影響力。

Prior to the Chinese Communist Party`s 18th Party Congress, a number of works attempted to predict the results of the elite recruitment and turnover that was about to occur. While these predictions were generally successful, mistakes were made and now afford us the opportunity to reassess our understanding of the CCP`s elite recruitment process. Using an in-depth literature review, comparative studies and multiple regression analysis, we attempt to improve our ability to analyze and explain this process. We also discuss Hu Jintao`s resignation from the post of party secretary and the chair of the Central Military Commission, which should strengthen the CCP`s pattern of a peaceful transition of power, and reduce the influence of party elders on political decisions. Finally, we discuss factional politics, which continued to play a role in the recruitment process. While factions weakened among the Politburo Standing Members, they are likely to have a stronger influence in 2017 during the 19th Party Congress.