雲嘉南地區賄選案件判決的政治因素分析：層狀勝算對數模型之應用

Abstract

一般認爲鄉鎭市（區）調解委員會爲地方派系所把持，成爲地方派系結構中的一個重要部份。本研究亦以爲，擔任鄉鎭市調解委員具有三種利益，包括：政治利益、經濟利益與社會利益。所以，地方派系極力爭取鄉鎭市調解委員職位。據此，本研究以「台北縣地方派系與鄉鎭市調解委員會的互動關係」爲主題，進行地方派系與鄉鎭市調解委員會關係模型的統計，以及對相關人士的深度訪談，試圖以量化與質化並重的方式，期對台灣地方派系的模型測試能再加以精鍊，以供研究台灣地方派系的專家學者，能複製對其他個案的研究。

It is believed that almost every Town`s District Committee ofMediation in Taiwan is dominated by local factions and the committeemembers are the important figures within their factions.In this research,based on the assumption that the Committee members are convenient toaccess political,social and economic interests,we hypothesize that inTaipei County the more powerful a local political faction is;the more interventionit has toward the District Committee of Mediation.Therefore,we use 3 models to examine the relationship between localpolitical factions and the District Committee of Mediation by statisticdatum,such as the amounts of mediation cases,the successful rate of mediationand soon.However,through depth interviews to 8 committee members and 3clergies in different Towns of Taipei County which provides not only thequantitative explanations but the qualitative analysis for this research.The author expects that students of Taiwan`s local political factions researchwill have moore refined models contributed by this paper to duplicatefurther studies.