二十一世紀中共應對南海爭端策略之研究

Abstract

南海處於太平洋和印度洋連接的交通要衝之地，地緣戰略位置十分重要。隨著20世紀70年代南海豐富的資源被勘探和開發，中國大陸與越南、菲律賓、馬來西亞、印尼等國在南沙群島的島嶼主權與南海海域劃界問題上產生了爭端，並且爭端長期未獲解決。這樣不僅導致南海周邊國家有聯合抗衡中國大陸的行動，且使得該區域外大國介入該地區。美國、日本是影響南海爭端最大的外部因素，與中國大陸具有結構性的矛盾，並決定了其在南海爭端中必然與中國大陸的對立。就南海爭端而言，總體亞太國際體系上是不利於中國大陸，但形勢並非極度險惡，倘中國大陸政策制定得當，能在各區域大國及東協諸國間合縱外交，即可創造出一個有利於中國大陸解決南海爭端的國際體系。

The South China Sea is in the transportation hub between the Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean .It is very important in the geo-strategic position.With potential petroleum discovered in the South China Sea in 1970"s, China and Vietnam, PhiliPPines, Malaysia, Indonesia have had a dispute on the demarcation of the emergence of the South China Sea islands and its Spratly Islands’sovereignty and the tetritorial sea.The South China Sea, a long unresolved not only make the neighboring countries joint action to balance China, but also intervene from great powers outside the region. In a word, the United States and Japan are the most important exterior factor, the contradiction between China and them determines that they can not but oppose China in the dispute. From the above analyses, we can conclude that the Asia-pacific international configuration is not favorable to China totally in the dispute. But the situation is not too inclement as long as China carries out suitable policy to manoeuvre among various political groupings in Asia-pacific area. It is possible for China to construct a favorable international configuration to manage the dispute of South China Sea.