Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://ah.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/67952


Title: 副總統候選人的選票效應—2004~2012年總統選舉的比較分析
Other Titles: The Electoral Effects of Vice-Presidential Candidates in Taiwan, 2004-2012
Authors: 林長志
Lin, Chang-chih
Keywords: 副總統候選人;選票效應;投票選擇;二元勝算對數模型
vice-presidential candidates;voting behavior;feeling thermometer;binary logit model
Date: 2014.06
Issue Date: 2014-07-29 17:09:56 (UTC+8)
Abstract: 本文主要的研究問題,乃探究副總統候選人於總統大選中的選票效應及其影響模式,以臺灣2004、2008,及2012年三次的總統大選為分析對象,進行系統性的比較研究。本研究使用TEDS三個年度之選後民意調查資料,以其中關於選民對正副總統候選人的情感溫度計測量,建構選民對於不同正副總統候選人的偏好組合類型,並操作化相關變數,建立以實際投票對象為依變數的二元勝算對數模型,來解析副總統候選人產生的選票效應。研究結果顯示,不論是從調查資料的描述性統計、或由學理邏輯所建構的偏好組合型態分析,皆證實了在總統大選中,儘管選民對總統候選人的偏好評價仍居於影響其投票選擇的關鍵,然而選民對副總統候選人的好惡程度,同樣也會對其最終的投票決策產生影響。同時,當選民對於同黨之正副總統候選人的評價產生落差,亦即包裹交易中的心理矛盾時,副總統候選人的偏好評價仍然具有影響力,只是該選票效應的主要影響範圍,乃發生在當選民對同黨正副總統候選人的評價不至於太過懸殊時,當此種心理矛盾差距越大時,將削弱個別副總統候選人的選票效應。而副總統候選人評價的選票效應,對於不同藍綠認同群體的選民亦有不同程度的效果,且隨著不同年度的副手人格特質、形象等各種條件的差異,其選票效應的程度亦會有所不同。
This article focuses on the role of vice-presidential candidates in electoral campaigns and examines whether and how voters’ evaluations on vice-presidential candidates affect their voting decisions in presidential elections of Taiwan in 2004, 2008, and 2012 from a comparative perspective. Analyzing survey data from the Taiwan's Election and Democratization Study (TEDS) project, we show that, first, voters' voting decisions are influenced by how they feel about vice-presidential candidates even though the effects of their evaluations on vice-presidential candidates are not as critical as their feelings toward presidential candidates. Second, the effects of vice-presidentialcandidates on voting behavior are conditional on voters’ feelings toward both presidential and vice-presidential candidates. Finally, the electoral effects of vice-presidential candidates differ across voters with different party identifications.
Relation: 臺灣民主季刊, 11(2), 39-89
Data Type: article
Appears in Collections:[政治學系] 期刊論文

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