中國大陸粳稻生產之經濟分析

Abstract

中國大陸自一九七八年改革開放以來，北方粳稻生產迅速發展，生產結構出現了顯著的變化，南方沿海省分由於非農產業的高速發展，以往南方省分是中國大陸糧倉的局面已不復存在，而北方粳稻產區受到技術進步帶動的影響大幅增產，形成了中國大陸北糧南調的新格局，在經濟發展過程中，生產要素會隨著生產結構的變化而移轉，對糧食部門而言，生產要素的移轉，將造成要素成本上漲的壓力，進而降低了種糧的利潤，造成農民增產不增收的現象，引起農民強烈的反彈。農民與非農民所得差距日益擴大，地區間矛盾衝突愈形尖銳，使中國大陸在處理糧食問題時面對了極為嚴峻的挑戰。本研究建立大陸粳稻生產計量模型，估算出各省粳稻之價格彈性、生產要素需求彈性及生產要素組合之技術進步傾向對其生產要素投入的影響，提供決策者及生產者較佳之決策參考，以兼顧國家糧食安全與生產者利潤之雙重目標。本研究主要發現有二點：第一、長期而言中國大陸糧食生產仍將面對高成本、低效率的惡劣環境，下一世紀開始前期中國大陸極有可能出現糧食總產量短缺、結構性短缺及地區產短缺之困境。第二、粳稻生產技術進步傾向於多使用資本與技術密集之生產要素投入，減少勞力生產要素，將引起大陸農村剩餘勞動力移轉之結構性問題，故農業產業化將是未來中國大陸能否順利解決大陸三農問題的關鍵因素。

Considerable attention has been given to the proper measurement, estimation, and analysis of the technological structure of Chinese agriculture. During the past four decades, studies motivated by duality theory have also analyzed regional farm production. No attempt has been made to analyze the Japonica-type rice production structure in Mainland China.China is a large nation in terms of both population and economy. Due to the rapid development of industrial and commercial sectors, China`s agricultural sector has experienced substantial changes in its production structure and profitability. To meet challenging economic conditions, agricultural policy most be adjusted in a timely fashion in order to prevent the small farm economy from collapsing. The purpose of this study is to examine the structure of agricultural production in Mainland China using a “single-output, multiple inputs” variable profit model.The empirical results of this study are as follows:1.Input demand and output supply elasticities were estimated for Japonica-type rice and five inputs.2.Technical changes led to capital-intensive and labor-saving benefits for Japonica-type rice. This indicates the increasing use of inputs which are biased toward machinery and seed and against labor. The results from this analysis of farm production is important in policy formulation.3.The impact of single price change on all other inputs can easily be determined in such an integrated framework.