中國大陸區域間通貨膨脹與貿易開放性之關係

Abstract

本文使用1997-2010 年中國大陸31 個區域（省）資料探討貿易開放對以生產者物價指數（Producer Price Index, PPI）及消費者物價指數（Consumer Price Index, CPI）計算的通貨膨脹率及通貨膨脹波動的影響。本文的實證結果發現，一省的貿易開放性和其PPI 膨脹率之間呈現負向關係，然而貿易開放性和CPI 膨脹率之間並無顯著的關係；此結果可以用貿易開放所帶給生產者的競爭效果來解釋。此外，本文發現一省的貿易開放性和其PPI 和CPI 通貨膨脹波動均呈負向關係；CPI 的結果符合文獻中商品多樣化選擇能降低通貨膨脹波動的論點，PPI 的結果則可說明貿易開放能增加生產者對其原料及中間財的來源選擇，故PPI 通貨膨脹波動亦可能降低。

This paper utilizes the Chinese provincial data between 1997 and 2010 to study how trade openness affects the levels and volatility of the Producer Price Index（PPI）and the Consumer Price Index（CPI）. Our empirical results suggest that trade openness is negatively correlated with PPI but uncorrelated with CPI, and the former result can be explained by the competition effect brought about by international trade. In addition, our paper finds that trade openness is negatively correlated with the volatility of both PPI and CPI. The finding for the decreased CPI volatility under trade can be explained by the increase in consumption diversity, and the decrease in PPI volatility under trade suggests that producers’ widening choices in material and intermediate goods also allow them to enjoy lower price volatility.