中國經濟不均衡發展與社會抗爭

Abstract

近來關於中國各種社會抗議事件的相關研究成果雖豐，但存在兩個缺失，一是對當前中國大陸社會抗爭整理的整體發展缺乏有系統的描述與特徵說明，二是對於總體經濟發展與社會抗爭間的聯繫過於直觀，欠缺進一步的證據。針對此，本研究透過大量的資料蒐集與分析，描繪出當前中國大陸社會抗爭的圖像。目前抗爭主體多是社會弱勢、抗爭因素多屬生存權、多採非暴力抗爭、抗爭對象多針對政府與缺少組織性反對，若將國家與國際因素加入，則可發現國家權力依舊強大，且外國勢力難以介入大陸內部的社會抗爭。在總體經濟變數與社會抗爭的統計分析方面，本研究指出勞動所得水準越低，失業人口越多及房價越高，增加了社會抗爭的可能性。肇因於城鄉不均衡的發展，城鎮化率與城鎮對農村人均消費支出比，對抗爭次數皆造成正面的影響。同時，中國經濟長期東西部地區的不均衡發展，增加了西部地區發生社會抗爭的機會。

Though there are many studies on China’s recent social protests, two key perspectives are missing from the literature: systematic investigations on the overall social protest development and empirical evidence of economic development and social protest. To fill the gap, this study explores social protest issues in contemporary China by analyzing a large collection of related datasets. We find that the protest entity is likely to be the socially disadvantaged, fighting for subsistence, with possible non-violent features, against the government, and lack of organized affiliates. If we consider state and international factors, the state still plays a dominant role while foreign resources have nearly no impacts on the protests in China. On the empirical analysis of macro-economic environments and social protests, the models show that the lower labor income, more unemployment and higher price levels increase the likelihood of social protest. Due to unequal development in urban and rural areas, urbanization rate and ratio of urban to rural per capita consumption expenditure have positive impacts on the protests. Meanwhile, China’s uneven development in eastern and western regions leads to more social protests in the western region.