台灣高低科技產業、內外資廠商及內外銷廠商 存活期間及失敗危險率影響因子比較分析-期 間模型

Abstract

鑑於了解影響廠商存活期間及失敗危險率之因子,對廠商及政府的決策有相當助益,因此,本研究收集三組不同比對樣本---台灣內外銷廠商、台灣高低科技產業以及台灣中小企業,利用期間模型及失敗危險函數,進行以下分析:(1)影響廠商存活期間及失敗危險率因子分析,(2)存在內外銷廠商之間以及高低科技產業之間的存活期間及失敗危險率影響因子差異性分析,(3)台幣升值前後,廠商存活期間及失敗危險率影響因子差異性的變化分析,(4)各類廠商失敗危險率之期間相依性及敏感度分析,(5)各類廠商之失敗時點預測分析。

To analyze the determinants of survival time and failure hazard rate will benefit the policy-making of firms and government. In this project, we use three different classified groups, which are export-oriented vs. domestic sale oriented firms, high vs. low technology industries, and small businesses, sampling from Taiwan`s manufacturing industries. By using duration model and failure hazard function, we analyze following subjects: (1) the determinants of survival time and failure hazard rate on these samples, (2) the differences among the factors which affect the survival time and failure hazard rate of export/domestic sale oriented firms and high/low technology industries, (3) the differences of determinants before and after sharp NT dollar appreciation (against US dollar) since 1986, and (4) the duration dependence and sensitivity of failure hazard rate, and (5) the predicted failed time.