青少年教育成就和初職取得時機之動態分析：以1984-85出生世代為例

Abstract

教育和勞力市場的轉銜（school-to-work transition）長期以來一直是社會科學 所關心的重要議題之一。在探討青少年高失業率問題時，個人的教育經歷和準備經常具 有關鍵性的影響力。在高等教育迅速擴張之下的台灣社會，我們看到在2000 年之後高 中、高職的畢業生的失業率攀升到接近大學畢業生的水準，而專科畢業生的表現維持在 失業率相對較低的水平。以往學者從訊號理論和社會網絡理論來探討教育和勞力市場的 轉銜過程，但多數有關教育和勞力市場轉銜的研究經常受限於單一時點的資料收集方 式，並且往往被侷限在傳統地位取得模型的討論範疇，對於考慮到時間向度的初職取得 時機之分析則比較少。我們認為：不同學位和經歷所表達的訊號對取得初職的待業時間 會有重要的影響。本計畫企圖利用台灣教育長期追蹤資料庫後續調查（TEPS-B）所收集 的青少年教育史和工作史資料，結合事件史分析法，從供給面和需求面來驗證學校教育 經歷、性別、和總體經濟景氣變動趨勢，如何延長或縮短職場新鮮人找到第一份正式工 作的待業時間。本研究提出4 個主要研究假設：(1)相對於一般大學畢業生，受專科學 校教育的畢業生會縮短取得初職的待業期間；（2）取得雙主修或輔系資格證明的畢業 生會縮短取得初職的待業期間；（3）女性畢業生會比男性畢業生更快找到第一份正式 工作；（4）當總體失業率越高，會延長個人取得初職的待業時間。

School-to-work transition has been one of the most important issues in the social science research. In most of the modern societies, youth unemployment rate tends to be higher than other age groups. People are wondering how the new school leavers can find a job in this globalized and flexible labor market. Most of the previous studies of job entry tend to rely on the cross-sectional data, and they also tend to be constrained by status attainment models. They were not able to analyzing the timing of labor market entry. In order to overcome these limitations, this project uses the retrospective education history and job history data from Taiwan Education Panel Survey and Beyond (TEPS-B). Our goal is to bring the time dimension into the discussion of school-to-work transition. The research project emphasizes that both supply-side factors and demand-side factors are important in explaining the patterns of labor market entry. In this study, we provides four major research hypotheses that: (1) Based on signaling perspective, people with a junior college degree tend to enter their first job faster than those who have a college degree; (2) People with a double major or a minor degree tend to enter their first job faster than those who have only one major; (3) After graduation, women tend to enter their first job faster than men; (4) Unemployment rate will decrease the probability of getting a first job. With the longitudinal panel survey data, this dynamic approach will provide important insights to understand the gender gap in the school-to-work transition in Taiwan. These research findings will also have important policy implications for constructing the education and labor policies in the future.