台北市選民的分裂投票行爲：一九九八年市長選舉分析

Abstract

選民的投票意向一直是政治學界注意的焦點，但是在秘密投票的限制下，能得知「個別」選民的投票態度與決定，唯有依靠民意調查，不過所得之答案的眞實性則令人懷疑。對選舉唯一能確定的是，選舉後選民「集體」決定後的結果，但若是希望藉由得票結果資料作為個人投票態度的推論，恐怕會有「區位謬誤」(ecologicalfallacy)的風險。本文以八十七年台北市選舉各投票所之得票記錄分析選民對各政黨市長和市議員候選人分裂投票的現象，嘗試運用King的EI模型，跨層次推論分析選民在三黨市議員候選人與三黨市長候選人之間的抉擇，並初探性利用統計方法降低區位謬誤的風險。結果發現，與外界預期新黨市議員支持者大多採取分裂投票，投票支持國民黨市長候選人馬英九，其分裂投票率高達98.29％。另外，國民黨市議員支持者亦有分裂投票的情形，主要分裂投票對象為民進黨市長候選人陳水扁，分裂投票率為48.28％。

Voting tendencies has been the focus of political field.Due to thelimitations of the secretive voting system,the only way to learn each individual`svoting preferences is to take polls.However,the reliability ofthe poll results is questionable.One thing that we can be sure of is thatthe voting results reflect every citizen`s decision.It would be a risk of ecologicalfallacy if one hypothesizes the voting attitude based on the votingresult.Based on the voting result in the Taipei election of 1998,first ofall,this thesis gives an analysis of the phenomenon of split-ticket votingbetween political parties in City Mayor and City congress.ApplyingKing`s EI model analyzes how citizens chose their desired candidates amongthe three political parties.It also experimentally applies the statisticsmethods to lower the risk of ecological fallacy.So it turns out that asexpected,the supporters of the New Party adapt split-ticket voting byvoting KMT`s candidate Mao Ying-jo.The rate of split-ticket votingreaches 98.29%.In addition,split-ticket voting also happens to the supportersof KMT`s congress.The voters in split-ticket voting vote forDPP`s City Mayor candidate Chen Shuei-Bien.The split-ticket votingrate registers 48.28%.