立法委員連任預測模型分析－以第四屆立法委員為例

Abstract

本研究以立法委員連任為研究主軸，旨在探討SNTV選舉制度下，立法委員之連任表現。研究首先針對第四屆區域立委於第五屆立法委員選舉之連任表現進行探討，並且檢視政黨、個人、地方派系、選區等四大因素與立法委員連任表現的關係，以發掘影響立法委員連任表現的重要因素。最後，分別運用二元洛基模型，建立「立法委員連任模型」，比較各類自變數對立法委員連任與否的影響程度，並對現任立法委員於次屆連任與否進行預測。研究結果發現，政黨、個人、地方派系、選區等四大因素中，以政黨因素、個人表現因素，對第四屆區域立委於第五屆立法委員選舉之連任表現影響，最為關鍵；更精確的說，政黨提名，以及相較於同選區其他立委下，立法委員於任內之立法工作、選區服務、新聞曝光度等三項個人表現，共同為影響立法委員連任與否之重要變數。

The axis of this paper is legislators` reelections, and the purpose is to explore legislators` reelections under SNTV electoral system. At the beginning, this paper discusses the fourth legislators` reelections in the fifth legislative election then examines the relationship between the major four factors, including party, personal performance, local faction and constituency, and legislators` reelections in order to find out the important variables of affecting legislators` reelections. Finally, this paper will use binary logistic model to build ”the model of legislators` reelections” for comparing the degree of all the variables affecting legislators` reelections.Research findings show that among all the four factors, party and personal performance are the most critical ones affecting the fourth legislators` reelections in the fifth legislative election. Speaking precisely, the nomination of party and legislators` performances (including legislative performance, services of the constituency and the news-exposures in term), which compare with the other legislators` in the same constituency are the important variables affecting legislators` reelection.