二十一世紀後美中在六方會談之外交戰略

Abstract

中共為積極於東北亞地區展現外交作為，視六方會談為當前最適當的外交擂台，冀望主導會談機制及後續發展，產生更勝過往的影響力，由於朝鮮半島同時受美俄中日等強權勢力包圍，深受地緣政治影響，各國之間亦鬥亦合，時敵時友，冷戰留下的東北亞政局，在各國追求國家利益的交互影響下，兩極對峙格局再度復甦，北韓身處其中，為保全内政、安全、經濟發展所需條件，與美國擴張東北亞影響力之目標相衝突，因此北韓自力研製核武用於外交籌碼。\n北韓三次核武危機，震驚國際社會，美國與北韓摩擦不斷，從雙邊會談到四方、三方會談均徒勞無功，中共於此間，以其發展中國力為依託，成為六方會談發起國，美、俄、中、日、南北韓自2003年起召開六輪會議，期間數次囿於部分國家利益受損而杯葛會談進程，然略有斬獲，產生9.19共同聲明及衍生行動文件，在北韓第二次核試爆後，相關協議未賡續執行，六方會談延宕迄今，已面臨談判空轉、決議無法奏效之困境。\n美國地位係屬主導國，中共角色是影響國兼東道國，但兩國作用有限，無法約束北韓配合，日本、南韓亦不樂見北韓予取予求，使得六方會談無法實現半島無核化之初衷，各方在會談中基於相對利得之邏輯，執意追求自家權利最大化及最多利益，加上北韓面新領導人政權接班未久，均左右未來朝核問題解決方案。\n短期内無法和平解除北韓核武，又不易執行嚴厲制裁，北韓勢將循其戰爭邊緣慣例，以和談及衝突交叉運用，北韓一日不棄核，美國亦無法安心裁減軍力，只能強化同盟，造成新冷戰格局日益明朗，在「美日韓」與「中俄朝」的博弈算計過程中，未來中共將極力保持權力平衡現狀，居中斡旋制衡各方，以和諧世界之理想主義塑造正面形象，包藏真實目的，實則牵制西方文明擴張， 降低周邊國家核武競賽風險，並視北韓地緣特性成為中美之間緩衝，鞏固安全邊界。

China has demonstrated its active diplomatic posture in northeast Asia, and considered Six-Party Talks as the most appropriate diplomatic arena. China hopes to lead this Six-Party Talks mechanism and the following developments in order to gain more influence beyond the past. Owing to the fact that Korean Peninsula is greatly affected by geopolitics with surrounding powers, including the United States, Russia, China and Japan, there are struggles and cooperation among these powers; they are both adversaries and friends. The bipolar competition is restored in the political environment of Post-Cold War Northeast Asia by the interactions among nations’ interests. North Korea which strives for domestic affairs, security and economic development requirements has its conflict with the United States whose intention is to expand its influence on northeast Asia. Therefore, North Korea has developed the nuclear weapons as a bargaining chip.\nNorth Korea conducted three nuclear weapons crisis which shocked the international community and has caused friction against the United States. The bilateral, tripartite and four-party talks were all failed. China, based on its developing power, initiated the Six-Party Talks. The United States, Russia, China, Japan, South Korea and North Korea chaired the six rounds of talks by turn. Although the talks were boycotted on account of some nations’ interests loss for several times, there were still some achievements, such as September 19 Joint Statement along with Initial Actions for Implementation of the Joint Statement. After North Korea conducted the second nuclear test, the implementations of the agreements have been suspended. The Six-Party Talks has been delayed so far and came to a predicament which the negotiations become idle and the resolution could not be achieved.\nThe United States acts as a leading nation while China plays a role as an influencing and host nation. However, both nations are incompetent to restrict North Korea because of limited actions. Japan and South Korea are also not pleased to see North Korea can demand what it wants. They made the objective of the Six-Party Talks, denuclearizing North Korea, fail to be realized. All parties, based on the logic of relative gain, insist on maximizing their rights and interests. In addition, the new leader of North Korea newly took over the regime. These are the factors that affect the solutions of North Korea nuclear issue.\nNuclear disarmament of North Korea can’t be made peacefully in a short time, nor can the sanctions be strictly implemented. North Korea would certainly follow the behavior of pushing to the edge of war and use the means of peaceful talks and conflicts alternatively. As long as North Korea does not give up nuclear weapons, the United States would not reduce armaments but strengthen its alliance. A new Cold War becomes clear. In a bargaining game between “the United States-Japan-South Korea” and “China-Russia-North Korea”, China would make its efforts to maintain the balance of power and mediate between the parties in order to create a positive image of building a harmonious world. In fact, China’s hidden intention is to restrain the expansion of the Western civilization and to lower the risk of nuclear arm race in the neighboring countries. China regards the geographic location of North Korea as a buffer zone from the United States for the purpose of consolidating its borders.