Return and Onward Migrations and Their Determinants of the Young Labor Force in Taiwan: Evidence from the Data of the1990 Census

Abstract

本文利用行政院主計處1990年戶口及住宅普查資料，連用三層式巢狀邏輯模型，分析及評估1985-90年間台灣年輕勞動力回流及重覆流動之決定因子。為解釋回流及重覆勞動力流動，除了一般的學理依據之外，本文論述亦強調所謂的「失望假說」及「反應假說」之重要性，本研究主要發現如下。第一、對前次流動結果感到“失望”者於決定再次遷徙時較易選擇回流流動，然有一部分回流流動和連續流動原因類似，即追逐較佳機會所致。第二、前次流動在回流/連續流動模型之U﹒型效應不只支持“失望假說”，亦顯示“家鄉”的區域性資本之貶值效應。第三、回流者通常係教育程度較低者，但該負向教育選擇性不若連續流動的正向教育選擇性般強烈。第四、不在本籍之農事工作者較不在本籍之非農事工作者有較高再流動之傾向，且當決定再次流動時，前者較易選擇回流流動。第五、男女性勞動力再次流動亦可能受到所謂的「父權意識型態」之影響，致使家計負責人(大都為男性)較非家計負責人有較高的流動傾向，且於再次流動時較易選擇連續流動，並對勞動市場之推一拉作用亦較非家計負責人敏感。

This paper is to identify and assess the determinants of 1985-90 interprefectural return and onward migrations of the young non-native labor force (aged 25-29 in 1990) in Taiwan, by applying a three-level nested logit model to Appendix h previous migration outcome and (2) the responsiveness to economic opportunities. The following are the main findings. First, disappointments are more likely to result in return migrations, whereas onward migrations are more prone to be induced by the pursuits of newly emerged or better opportunities; however, a large proportion of returnees remain subject to the effects of market forces. Second, the U-shaped effect of previous migration distance in the return/onward model not only supports the disappointment hypothesis, but also reveals its effects on the depreciation of location-specific capital left behind and on the ability to finance further move. Third, return migration is selective of the less educated labor force as opposed to the very strong positive pattern of its onward counterpart. Fourth, agricultural workers are particularly prone to re­migrate and choose return option from prefectures with a high non-agricultural share of total employment. Fifth, the relative sensitivity of male and female labor force could be explained to be substantially affected by the patriarchal ideology; within this value system, breadwinners are (1) more prone to move onward, (2) less prone to return, and (3) more responsive to the pushes and pulls of market forces than non-breadwinners.