An empirical study of the asymmetric cointegration relationships among the Chinese stock markets

Abstract

The Enders and Siklos asymmetric cointegration test is employed to examine the long-run asymmetric equilibrium relationships between the Chinese Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets. Three samples are adopted, which are the whole sample (October 1992 to September 2002); the first subsample before B shares were opened up to the Chinese public (October 1992 to February 2001); and the second subsample after B shares were opened up (February 2001 to September 2002). The estimated results are as follows. First, when the conventional Engle–Granger symmetric cointegration test is used, only the A shares in Shanghai and Shenghen stock exchange market are cointegrated when using the whole sample and the first subsample. However, with the Enders–Siklos M-TAR asymmetric cointegration test, Shenzhen A and B shares stock prices have an asymmetric cointegration relationship after B shares were open, suggesting that openness increases the market efficiency. Furthermore, the two A shares in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges also have an asymmetric cointegration relationship in the whole sample and the first subsample, implying that although the asymmetric relationship is crucial, it has long been neglected. Finally, it is found that the adjustment speed of Shanghai A shares is faster when deviation from the long-run equilibrium is positive than when it is negative.