台北市連鎖便利商店展店行為的動態分析

Abstract

臺灣的連鎖式便利商店密度居世界之冠，為數眾多的門市使得便利商店與臺灣人\n民的生活息息相關，就直覺來說，便利商店門市的數量也影響了廠商設立新門市\n的決策。本研究建構了一離散選擇的動態賽局，分析臺北市各個行政區便利商店\n門市數量對不同廠商設立新門市的影響。實證結果顯示當競爭對手門市數量剛開\n始增加時，門市數量對便利商店的利潤有正向的影響，但是當對手門市數量太多\n時，此數量的增加對便利商店的利潤產生負向影響。這結果表示一開始門市之間\n的互補效果大於替代效果，但是門市數量太多造成過度競爭，此時門市之間的替\n代效果大於互補效果。而同品牌的門市數量對於廠商的總利潤也有類似的影響。\n另外，本研究也估計便利商店歷年來在臺北市各行政區展店的機率，其中大安區\n和中山區是便利商店廠商最想展店的行政區，相對而言，南港區、大同區和萬華\n區則是展店機率較低的行政區。

The density of convenience stores (CVS) in Taiwan is ranked as number one in the\nworld. The highly concentrated market of convenience stores has dramatically\nchanged the lifestyle of Taiwanese people. The number of existing outlets in a region\nis also an important factor in regard to the entry decisions of new outlets. In this study,\nwe construct a model of the dynamic discrete game, and examine the influence of the\nrival outlet number on CVS entry decisions in Taipei, Taiwan. The empirical evidence\nwe find is that the CVS profits first rise and then decline as the own or rival outlet\nnumber increases. This result implies that the complement and substitution effects\nvary with the number of the CVS outlets in a specific region. Furthermore, we\nestimate the probabilities that the CVS companies will set up additional outlets in any\ndistrict of Taipei during the data period. The results show that it is most likely for the\ncompanies to enter the Da’an and Zhongshan districts, while Nangang, Datong and\nWanhua are districts with low entry probabilities.