Fertility and Crime: Evidence from Spatial Analysis of Taiwan

Abstract

Current literature indicates the possible effects of crime on family-related demographic events, including fertility. However, there is no empirical study that confirms this effect. The research purpose of this study is to fill this gap. Using county-level panel data during 2000–2010 from Taiwan, the estimated results of the fixed-effect spatial error models discovered that crime did have a significantly negative effect on fertility, although the magnitude was modest. Furthermore, fertility has spatial dependence: that is, some unobservable factors that promote fertility in a county will likely have positive impacts on the fertility of neighboring counties. From a general viewpoint, the estimated results of other control variables showed that economic factors were still the primary determinants of fertility.