中國因應全球氣候變遷之政策與成效評估

Abstract

本文利用主成分分析法（Principal Component Analysis），建構全球氣候變遷趨勢指數（GCCTI），並以此評估世界各國應對政策之成效。研究時間為1971 年至2007 年，研究對象為92 個國家。實證結果顯示：在研究時間內，中國是氣候變遷惡化趨勢最為嚴重的國家，美國則是改善最多的國家。此外，從「十五計畫」開始，中國已制定氣候變遷的因應政策，但成效有限；究其原因，這些政策只是減緩影響GCCTI 權重較低的因素（如人口）；但沒有大幅降低權重較高的因素（如二氧化碳的排放）。 This study constructs a global climate change trend index based on principal component analysis. It also evaluates the effectiveness of countries’ policies toward global climate change, particularly China in details. This study covers 92 countries from 1971 to 2007. There are two key findings in this study. First, China is the most deteriorated while the United States has the most improved record in contributing to global climate change during the period of the study. Second, in the Tenth Five-Year Plan and Eleventh Five-Year Plan, China proposed the establishment of legislation and promoted policy objectives for climate change, but did not restrict influential factors of climate change, such as reduction of CO2 emission. Therefore, these policies were not effective in improving the overall climate change trend in China.