Confidence and Security Buliding between the Association of South East Asian Nations and the People`s Republic of China after the Cold War

Abstract

Why do cooperation and conflict coexist in post-Cold War confidence and security building between ASEAN and the PRC? The leading international relations theories--neorealism and neoliberal institutionalism--can partially explain why, but the theoretical development of these theories suggests that the micro-macro linkage approach focusing not only on individual micro and macro determinants but also on the dynamics between the micro and macro levels be the most useful way to analyze and predict the shape and evolution of ASEAN-PRC confidence and security building measures (CSBMs) with greater accuracy. The macro variables studied include the emergence of multilateral regimes facilitating cooperation, the increased acceptance of economic interdependence CSBMs in the world, a possibly emerging power vacuum in Southeast Asia, and the territorial dispute over the South China Sea. The micro variables affecting ASEAN`s and the PRC`s confidence and security building policies may vary, but they can fall into three general categories: differences in national power, political and decision-making constraints, and perceptions of external security and threat. Examining the most crucial micro and macro variables and scrutinizing the subtle dynamics among these variables identify some methodological and theoretical insights into the study of confidence and security building. Currently, the South China Sea dispute seems to remain a status quo with lower frequencies of skirmishes. If all of the following conditions are met: (1) the positive force of interdependence and CSBMs prevails, (2) the PRC can persuade ASEAN that it has no intention to replace the US as the hegemon in the Asia Pacific, (3) ASEAN and the PRC keep consulting with each other in multilateral regimes, (4) ASEAN`s capacity to act can be stronger to engage the PRC more effectively, and (5) the PRC`s will to take part in more CSBMs with ASEAN will not be seen as a sacrifice of national sovereignty by the Chinese people, then the development of ASEAN-PRC CSBMs can be cautiously optimistic. Yet, failure in meeting even one of these conditions will cause some adjustment of micro and macro variables and thus cause instability and uncertainty between ASEAN and the PRC.