Why Do People Support Political Isiam? Empirical Evidence from Eight Muslim Societies

Abstract

近來有些研究發現，在穆斯林社會中，有關民衆對於民主或戰爭的看法，個人宗教虔誠度並沒有顯著的解釋力，這個結果挑戰了傳統上一般學者的觀點，認爲宗教因素與中東國家在政治上的紛擾有密不可分的關係。儘管如此，政治學者至今仍然缺乏一個堅實的理論來解釋人們爲什麽劫持政治伊斯蘭的主張，本文的目的就是希望藉由嚴謹的方法論爲基礎，對於八個穆斯林國家進行經驗檢證來回答這個問題。首先，本文將釐清政治伊斯蘭的主張在理論上的概念爲何，並就三個既有解釋論點進行討論。其次是研究設計的提出，包括了各變數的概念化定義、變數的形成、資料的處理，以及主要的假設等相關議題之討論。再來本文將介紹心理測量學中的“項目反應理論”，並解釋如何應用在本文的研究中，特別是對於政治文化研究所具有的方法論優點。最後，結論將顯示：雖然三個既有的解釋觀點都成立，但具有較強解釋力的層面並不相同；在態度層面，個人宗教虔誠度和前現代心理特質是較強的解釋論點，但在行爲層面。不管伊斯蘭教政黨是執政或在野，人們都會基於責任政治的觀點，理性的決定其投票意向以監督執政者。

Some recent studies have found little explanatory power of religious attachment to the attitude toward democracy or war in the Muslim societies. This result challenges the conventional wisdom that the religious factor is deeply connected to political turmoil in the Middle East. However, political scientists so far lack a powerful theory to explain the support of political Islam. The purpose of this article is to make a contribution in this regard with methodological rigor. This article starts with a theoretical discussion about the concept of political Islam and the three major arguments for its popular support. Next, a research design is proposed, including the issues of conceptual definition, variable formation, data processing, and major hypotheses. Then I introduce an innovative psychometric approach, Item Response Theory (IRT), to this study. Specifically, the focus is why the application of IRT can contribute to political culture studies with methodological merit. Finally, the conclusion shows that the three explanations all explain the support of political Islam but in different aspects. People with greater personal piety or premodernist attitudes are more supportive of political Islam in attitude, but when it comes down to voting behavior, they are very rational to hold the incumbent government responsible, no matter whether Islamist parties are part of it.