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https://ah.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/76924| 題名: | 選舉制度對投票參與的影響： 跨國比較與台灣個案分析 Effects of Electoral Systems on Voter Turnout: Cross-National Comparisons and Taiwan’s Experience |
作者: | 林啟耀 Lim, Kah Yew |
貢獻者: | 黃紀 Huang, Chi 林啟耀 Lim, Kah Yew |
關鍵詞: | 投票參與 選舉制度 選制變遷 跨國比較 個案分析 |
日期: | 2015 | 上傳時間: | 27-Jul-2015 | 摘要: | 投票參與是民主政治運作的核心，投票率的高低是政府執政是否具有代表性與正當性的重要指標。選舉制度是否影響投票參與，一直深受國內外學者所關注，然而選舉制度如何對投票參與造成影響卻頗多爭論。為了探討選舉制度與選制變遷如何影響投票參與，本研究以跨國比較的方式，分析各種選舉制度對國會投票率高低的直接影響與跨時影響。同時，本研究也以台灣選制變遷為個案分析對象，探討選制變遷對投票參與之效應。在方法上，本研究在跨國比較的部分蒐集世界各民主國家歷次國會選舉的相關資料，並以「固定與隨機效果混合法」進行分析；在台灣個案分析的部分，本研究採「準實驗設計」，以鄉鎮市民代表選舉為比較組，評估選制變遷對立委選舉投票率之影響。另外也以「台灣選舉與民主化調查」TEDS2008L針對TEDS2004L成功樣本之定群追蹤資料，分析台灣同一群選民在新舊選制下投票參與的穩定與變遷。\n 研究結果可以分為兩個部分：在跨國比較的部分，本研究發現選舉規則的比例代表性愈低，投票率會愈低。其中，採並立制國家的投票率顯著低於採比例代表制的國家，採多數決制的國家投票率下降的幅度則顯著大於比例代表制國家。選區規模愈大的國家，投票率則愈高。另外，本研究也發現選舉制度對不同民主資歷國家的影響也不同，對民主資歷較深國家的影響較大且較符合學理預期，對民主資歷較淺國家則影響較小。在台灣個案的部分，本研究發現立委選制變遷並沒有對總體投票率產生顯著的影響，但是對個體選民的投票穩定與變遷卻有顯著的影響。尤其是評估新選制比舊選制更讓人不想去投票的選民以及小黨支持者，都比較傾向在舊選制下有去投，但新選制下不去投。本研究認為透過上述宏觀與微觀層次的分析，不僅讓我們對選舉制度如何影響國會選舉投票率高低及變化有更深入的瞭解，也讓我們釐清選舉制度變遷如何影響個別選民的投票參與。 | 參考文獻: | 王業立，2011，《比較選舉制度》，六版，台北：五南圖書出版公司。\n王業立、彭怡菲，2004，〈分裂投票：一個制度面的分析〉，《台灣政治學刊》，8(1): 3-45。\n王鼎銘、郭銘峰、黃紀，2008，〈選制轉變過程下杜佛傑心理效應之檢視：從日本眾議院選制變革的經驗來觀察〉，《問題與研究》，47(3): 1-28。\n吳俊德、陳永福，2005，〈投票與不投票的抉擇－2004年總統大選與公民投票的探索性研究〉，《台灣民主季刊》，2(4): 67-98。\n吳重禮，2008，〈立法委員選舉制制度改革的省思：匡正弊端或是治絲益棼〉，載於《如何評估選制變遷：方法論的探討》， 黃紀、游清鑫主編，台北：五南圖書出版公司。\n吳振嘉，2002，〈選舉制度變革的影響因素－以日本、台灣為例〉，國立政治大學政治學系碩士學位論文。\n呂亞力，1988，《政治發展與民主》，四版，台北市：五南圖書出版公司。\n林長志，2009，〈立委選制變遷對選民投票行為之影響：投票穩定與變遷的分析〉，國立政治大學政治學系博士學位論文。\n林繼文，2006，〈政府體制、選舉制度與政黨體系：一個配套論的分析〉，《選舉研究》，13(2): 1-35。\n張佑丞，2008，〈選舉制度與結果的比例性偏差：以台灣立法委員選舉制度為例（1992-2008）〉，國立政治大學國家發展研究所碩士學位論文。\n張家愷，2008，〈立法委員選舉制度變革對我國政黨體系之影響〉，國立政治大學國家發展研究所碩士學位論文。\n盛杏湲，2008，〈如何評估選制變遷對區域立委的代表角色與行為的影響：研究方法的探討〉，載於《如何評估選制變遷：方法論的探討》， 黃紀、游清鑫主編，台北：五南圖書出版公司。\n陳陸輝、周應龍，2008，〈如何評估單一選區兩票制下候選人票與政黨票之間的連動關係〉，載於《如何評估選制變遷：方法論的探討》， 黃紀、游清鑫主編，台北：五南圖書出版公司。\n逯扶東，2002，《西洋政治思想史》，台北市：三民出版社。\n黃信達、王業立，2008，〈選制變革對地方政治生態的影響：研究方法的探討〉，載於《如何評估選制變遷：方法論的探討》， 黃紀、游清鑫主編，台北：五南圖書出版公司。\n黃紀，2005，〈投票穩定與變遷之分析方法：定群類別資料之馬可夫鍊模型〉，《選舉研究》，12(1): 1-35。\n黃紀，2008a，〈選舉制度的脈絡與效應〉，載於《如何評估選制變遷：方法論的探討》， 黃紀、游清鑫主編，台北：五南圖書出版公司。\n黃紀，2008b，〈單一選區兩票並立制下選民之投票抉擇：分析方法之探討〉，載於《如何評估選制變遷：方法論的探討》， 黃紀、游清鑫主編，台北：五南圖書出版公司。\n黃紀，2009，〈調查研究設計〉，載於《民意調查新論》，游清鑫主編，台北：五南圖書出版公司。\n黃紀，2010，〈因果推論與效應評估：區段識別法及其於「選制效應」之應用〉，《選舉研究》，17(2): 103-134。\n黃紀，2012，〈質量並用法〉，載於《社會及行為科學研究法（一）：總論與量化研究》，瞿海源、畢恆達、劉長萱、楊國樞主編，台北：東華書局。\n 黃紀，2013，〈政治學計量方法的回顧與前瞻〉，載於《政治學的回顧與前瞻》，吳玉山、冷則剛、林繼文 主編，台北：五南圖書出版公司。\n黃紀、王德育，2009，〈2008年立委選舉對總統選舉的影響：鐘擺效應？西瓜效應？〉，載於《2008年總統選舉：論二次政黨輪替之關鍵選舉》，陳陸輝、游清鑫、黃紀 主編，台北：五南圖書出版公司。\n黃紀、周應龍，2013，〈2012年總統與立委併選的一致與分裂投票〉，載於《2012年總統與立法委員選舉：變遷與延續》， 陳陸輝主編，台北：五南圖書出版公司。\n黃紀、林長志，2013，〈併選對投票率的影響：因果效應分析〉，載於《2012年總統與立委選舉：變遷與延續》，陳陸輝主編，台北：五南圖書出版公司。\n黃桃芳，2005，〈台灣選民選舉參與之研究：總體與個體之資料的結合〉，國立政治大學政治學系碩士學位論文。\n楊百岳，2013，〈台灣選民選舉參與之研究：總體與個體之資料的結合〉，國立政治大學政治學系碩士學位論文。\n楊孟麗，2003，〈投票意願與經濟不景氣：台灣的情形〉，《選舉研究》，10(2): 159-191。\n劉浩廷，2010，〈投票率對民主政治的影響〉，國立中正大學政治學系碩士學位論文。\n蕭怡靖，2008，〈單一選區兩票制下台灣選民之投票行為：2008年立法委員選舉的多層分析〉，國立政治大學政治學系博士學位論文。\n蕭怡靖，2009，〈選制認知與投票參與：2008 年立法委員選舉的多層分析〉，《政治學報》，47: 29-58。。\n蕭怡靖、黃紀，2010a，〈2008年立委選舉候選人票之分析：選民個體與選區總體的多層模型〉，《台灣政治學刊》，14(1): 3-53。\n蕭怡靖、黃紀，2010b，〈單一選區兩票制下之一致與分裂投票：2008年立委選舉之探討〉，《台灣民主季刊》，7(3): 1-43。\nAbramson, Paul, and John Aldrich. 1982. “The decline of electoral participation in America.” American Political Science Review 76(3): 502-521.\nAldrich, John. 1993. “Rational Choice and Turnout.” American Journal of Political Science 37(1): 246-278.\nAllison, Paul. 2009. 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資料來源: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0992525072 | 資料類型: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | 學位論文 |
Files in This Item:
| File | Size | Format | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 507201.pdf | 3.1 MB | Adobe PDF2 | View/Open |
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