轉變至成人之類型與世代變遷分析

Abstract

本研究以生命歷程之研究取徑探討台灣民眾「轉至成人」(transition to adulthood)的歷程，嘗試回答以完成學業、開始工作、初次結婚以及初次生育所交織而成的轉至成人歷程呈現出哪些典型的類型、這些類型之轉至成人重要生命事件呈現出什麼樣的「持續期」(duration)、「順序」(order)與「時間間隔」(interval)、人口特徵如何影響轉至成人歷程類型，以及隨著時序展開，轉至成人歷程呈現出什麼樣的出生世代變遷。本研究以台灣社會變遷基本調查第三期第二次東亞比較調查與東亞社會階層與社會流動研究兩筆資料合併後進行分析，總分析樣本為7,248筆。 本研究使用能處理多重且動態生命事件的「多軌道序列分析」尋找轉至成人歷程類型，分別在1935-55、1956-67、1968-84出生世代找出4、3、4個轉至成人歷程類型，分析結果顯示各類型間的變異性隨著出生世代逐步增加，轉至成人重要生命事件的發生年齡也呈現出越來越晚的趨勢。 此外，研究也發現轉至成人歷程之持續期隨著出生世代逐漸延長，轉至成人生命事件的順序卻仍然穩固地呈現初次結婚、生育事件發生在完成學業與開始工作之後，而初次生育也持續地發生在初次結婚之後，順序的變動僅出現在完成學業與開始工作之間。時間間隔的分析則顯示轉至成人歷程延長最主要的因素來自於初次結婚事件的延後，而非初次生育，也就是在早期出生世代中結婚事件阻擋轉至成人歷程延長的效果隨著出生世代減弱了。 在人口特徵對於轉至成人歷程類型的影響效果探討上，研究發現性別和家庭社經地位對於轉至成人歷程類型的影響效果不但顯著，而且在不同出生世代都持續著。族群的影響效果則僅在最早出生世代較為明確，隨著出生世代越晚，族群間的轉至成人歷程差異逐漸縮小。 This study explores the transition to adulthood in Taiwan adopting the life course approach. Using school completion, first full-time job, first marriage, and first birth to define transition to adulthood, we try to reveal the typology of transition to adulthood in Taiwan, the duration, order, and time interval of the life events of transition to adulthood, the influence of demographics on transition to adulthood, and the cohort change of transition to adulthood spanning from 1935-84. Combining data from two surveys, Second year, third round of Taiwan Social Change Survey and Social Stratification and Social Mobility in Three Countries, 7,248 life courses are analyzed. Using Multichannel Sequence Analysis, which is capable of handling multiple dynamics life events, we find 4, 3, and 4 types of transition to adulthood in three cohort span, 1935-55, 1956-67, and 1968-84. Not only has the variability of these types increased overtime, life events of transition to adulthood occur later throughout the cohort span. In addition, the study shows the duration of transition to adulthood extends over time, but the order of that remains mostly normative, with first marriage and first birth preceded by school completion and first full-time job and first birth preceded by first marriage. The order change only occurs between school completion and first full-time job. From the analysis of time interval of life events of transition to adulthood, the study discloses that the delay of first marriage, not first birth, is the main reason of the prolongation of transition to adulthood. This shows that first marriage’s effect on stopping transition to adulthood from extending in the early cohort has weakened in the later cohorts. The effect of demographics on transition to adulthood varies. Sex and family socioeconomic status persist to have significant effect on transition to adulthood in different cohorts, while ethnic group has significant effect only in the early cohort, meaning the difference of transition to adulthood among ethnic groups has diminished over time.