Combining conjoint analysis, scenario analysis, the Delphi method, and the innovation diffusion model to analyze the development of innovative products in Taiwan`s TV market

Abstract

In science and technology industries, innovative products are launched rapidly, making the lifecycle of new products ever shorter. Thus, it is important that companies understand consumers` needs and consider expert opinion when analyzing the development of a new technology. However, no studies have combined these two perspectives with regard to the development of a new product. Therefore, this research combined conjoint analysis, scenario analysis, and the Delphi method with the innovative diffusion model to analyze the development of Taiwan`s TV market over the next 10 years. The results show that the outlook for demand for light-emitting diode (LED) TVs in Taiwan is very optimistic; sales of LED TVs will surpass sales of liquid crystal display TVs in 2015 in the optimistic scenario and in 2017 in the most likely scenario.