The Estimation of Housing Price Bubbles in China

Abstract

This paper uses the maximum likelihood method through the use of a state space model and recursive computation of the Kalman Filter to estimate the housing price bubbles in China. Results of empirical analyses reveal that price bubbles do exist in housing markets of Beijing, Shanghai and the whole of China in general. Although the proportion of price bubble to house price in China has shown a moderate decline due to the Chinese government`s adjustment of its real estate policies, but price bubbles still remained high in the third quarter of 2010.