Reconfirming Non-linearity in the Stock Price-Dividend Relation: Evidence from Long Span Data for the U.S.

Abstract

This paper attempts to detect non-linear contemporaneous and dynamic relations in the stock price-dividend relation in the U.S. based on long span data. From a linear cointegration test, we find very little evidence of a contemporaneous relation between real stock price and real dividend, but from a non-linear cointegration test we find a strong non-linear long-run relation. We also find solid evidence of linear and non-linear Granger bidirectional causality between the real stock price and real dividend. The results provide full support for the position most often cited in the extant literature that, in order to explain the behavior of stock price, the non-linear property should be taken into the linear PV model.