How Far Can Taiwan Go?

Abstract

This article explores the possibility of Taiwan`s moving away from the status quo by either seeking reunification with the mainland or pursuing de jure independence, and particularly focuses on the latter scenario. Clearly, immediate reunification is not a viable option, but a declaration of independence may be. However, given the public attitude on the national identity issue, which underpins Taiwan`s party structure, it is very difficult for the independence forces to control a majority of seats in the parliament. Thus, as long as the ROC constitutional structure remains essentially parliamentary, the chances that Taiwan will declare independence are not that great. Moreover, China`s threat to use force against Taiwan if Taiwan declares independence and the tremendous economic interests involved in doing business with China, coupled with the US insistence on peace and stability in the region, all keep Taiwan from taking drastic measures in pursuit of independence.