原住民立法委員選舉單一選區劃分可能性初探

Abstract

在我國原住民立法委員選舉中，經常被討論的二個問題是：不符時宜的山地／平地原住民身分劃分方式，以及未如區域立法委員一樣改成單一選區。由於身分劃分方式明訂於憲法之中，在目前的政治現實及修憲難度的限制下，是一個較難突破的困境，不過憲法僅規定原住民立法委員的席次，是山地原住民及平地原住民各三席，並未規定選區的規模，因此，改為單一選區是一個相對上比較容易的改革方向。本文嘗試將原住民立法委員選區劃分為單一選區，並評估單一選區對原住民立法委員選舉可能產生的衝擊與影響。研究結果發現：三個劃分方案大致都可以達到人口均等、選區的連續性、選區的簡潔等三個選區劃分的標準。至於就單一選區制度可能產生的衝擊與影響而言，本文發現如果就族群人口數的觀點來看，由於阿美族、排灣族、泰雅族、和布農族等四個大族的人口數，已占全體原住民的八成，重新劃分單一選區，席次的可能分布結果，應該和複數選區一樣會集中在這四個大族；也由於現任立法委員幾乎都有一個以本身故鄉為核心的穩定地盤，即使改為單一選區，現任的立法委員還是有很高的機會能夠勝選，但卻有大幅縮小選區服務範圍的優點。

Two often discussed issues remain in the elections for indigenous legislators in Taiwan. One is the way for identifying plain or mountain indigenous district is outdated and the other is, unlike their regional counterparts, the multiple member district is continued to be implemented in election. The former is an issue related to constitution regulation which implies a considerably difficult to be dealt with under current circumstance. Yet, though the constitution does prescribe the number of total indigenous legislators for plain and mountain areas respectively, it does not prescribe the district magnitude for each election. This has provided a possibility for redistricting the indigenous legislators in election. This paper aims at redistricting the boundary from multiple member district into single member district and assessing the potential impacts on the elections for indigenous legislators. Three redistricting proposals are provided by this paper, the result suggests that in general, the criteria for delimitation such as population equality, contiguity and compactness could all be achieved. As for the impacts of replacing the multiple member district by single member district, this paper suggests that since population from the four main tribes of Amis, Paiwan, Atayal and Bunun make up eighty percent of the indigenous population, the electoral result after redistricting will not be dramatically different from those of multiple member district, all the seats might remain to be shared by the four main tribes. It is argued that, since indigenous legislators enjoy a solid electoral base at home, redistricting the electoral boundary would not affect her/his prospects for electoral victory. Moreover, the redistricting would significantly reduce the size of district and thus enable a more thorough constituency service.