國家發展指標之探索

Abstract

為瞭解及追蹤國家發展指標，本研究以國民所得、都市化程度、非農業占總人口的比率、壽命、健康經費占國民生產毛額比率、節育率、每千人的報紙擁有數、每千人電視擁有數、每萬人網路擁有數、中等教育在學率、高等教育在學率及教育經費占國民生產毛額比率等十二個國家發展指標，以及將此十二個國家發展指標的Z分數總和，經過集群分析的華德法，將101個國家分類。研究結果發現，以十二個國家發展指標的分類，先進國家有21個、半先進國家有19個、部分開發國家有43個、欠開發國家有18個。以十二個國家發展指標的Z分數總和，以華德法分類，先進國家、半先進國家、部分開發國家及欠開發國家各有18個、22個、39個、22個。\r\n為檢定群集分析的準確性，再將群集分析分類的國家，以區別分析重新的分類，其結果顯示以十二個國家發展指標的分類準確度達99%，以十二個國家發展指標的Z分數總和的分類準確度為97%。\r\n經由斯皮爾曼等級相關檢定十二個國家發展指標分類，與Harbison 與 Myers(1964)、馬信 行(1988)、王保進(1989)，所得到的相關係數各為.89、.92、.93。如果運用十二個國家發 展指標的Z分數總和的分類，與前述學者等級相關的相關係數各為.90、.95、.95。 中華民國在十二個國家發展指標及十二個國家發展指標的Z分數集群分類，仍然在半先進國 家，與Harbison 與 Myers(1964)、馬信行(1988)、王保進(1989)所進行的研究結論一樣。 若以全球101個國家排名，前述二種分類法我國各排第28及27名。如以十二個國家發展指標 區分時，以區別分數標出在領域圖，則我國落在半先進及先進國家的邊界上。本研究針對 此問題提出建議。\r\n本研究亦檢定世界各國及開發中國家之國家發展指標因果關係模式，前者有101個國家，後 者有80個國家納入分析，研究發現世界各國，以及開發中國家之經濟潛在變項、社會潛在變項、文化潛在變項對教育潛在變項的國家發展因果模式，如果以卡方值指標衡量，並沒有顯著因果關係，但是如果以AGFI、GFI、RMR等指標衡量，則本模式適配度高，也就是二個模式是部分獲得證實。\r\n本研究建立國家發展指標指數，同時與馬信行(民77)、王保進(民78)、UNDP(1995)、UNDP(1997)的人力發展指數(HDI)，相關係數檢定發現，本研究建立的國家指標指數與前述學者、機構之相關係數高達.88以上，並達P<.01顯著水準。

The main purpose of this research is to understand the representative indicators of national development. There are twelve indicators of national development in the Cluster Analysis , such as the per capital income, the urban population as % of total population , the non-argicultural population as % of total population , the life expectancy at birth, public expenditure on health as % of GDP, the ratio of total non-fertility births per woman, the number of daily newspapers per 1000 persons, the number of television sets per 1000 persons, the number of Internet hosts per 10000 persons , the enrollment ratio of secondary education , the enrollment ratio of higher education , the public expenditure on education as % of GDP. Twelve national development indicators are also transferred into Z-scores. The raw data are collected from the World Bank Report(1996/1997), UNDP(1995/96/97),and UNESCO(1997/1998). Using the Cluster Analysis , twelve indicators are used to categorize 101 countries into four groups: advanced(21 countries), semi-advanced(19 countries), partially developed(43 countries), and underdeveloped(18 countries). Using Z-scores in the Cluster Analysis , there are also 101 countries which are categorized into four groups : advanced(18 countries), semi-advanced(22 countries), partially developed(39 countries), and underdeveloped(22 countries).\r\nIn order to test the consistency of these two clustering, the Discriminant Analysis is used to reclassify the two clustered countries. 99% of countries are correctly classified by the twelve indicators and 97% of countries are correctly classified by Z-scores.\r\nThe Spearman rank correlation is used to test the rank of the clustered countries by using twelve indicators correlations among Harbison & Myers(1964), Ma(1988), and Wang(1989) . The correlationships are .89,.92,.93, respectively. The rank of correlation among Harbison & Myers(1994), Ma(1988), and Wang(1989) by using Z-scores are .90,.95,.95, respectively.\r\nThe ROC , Taiwan, is classified as a semi-advanced country in two clustering analysis, as done by Harbison & Myers(1964), Ma(1988), Wang(1989). According to the discriminant scores of twelve national development indicators, Taiwan is located at the borderline between semi-advanced and advanced country in the territorial map. The study suggest some strategies for Taiwan’s government to deal with those problems.\r\nTo understand the representative of national development indicators causality model, the research employed the LISREL for study . There are two LISREL models in this study . The first one test national development indicators with 101 countries included in the model, and find that there are four latent variables in this model, such as economic , social , cultural , and educationallatent variables. The results showed that the χ2 value is significant, that is, the model is not fitted better ,but other indice , GFI,AGFI, and RMR , are better. The results of the second model with 80 developing countries included in the model is similar to the first one. The χ2 value is also significant which means the samples might be small.\r\nIn addition, the research computed and ranked the index of national development by the twelve indicators. The Principal Component Analysis is used to extract these indice, and also the twelve national development indicators are transferred into Z-scores to sum up the national development indice. Taiwan’s indice are .71 and 6.85, respectively. In accordance with twelve national development Z-scores , Taiwan is ranked as 27 in 101 countries.\r\nThe Pearson correlations among the index of national development, UNDP’s HDI(Human development index,1995), UNDP’s HDI(1997), Ma(1988), and Wang(1989) are also computed. ALL correlations are above .88, and there is significant (p<.01 ), too.