政策意向、施政滿意度與投票行為：測量與模型

Abstract

過去國內針對預算分配的研究很少評估民意的影響，而且過去民意調查的焦點又集中在全國性的議題，例如統一或獨立、兩岸關係等等，使得政策與民意之間的關連性長期未受到應有重視。 本計畫將針對2013年的縣市長選舉以及2014年的五都市長選舉，探討民眾的政策意向與政策產出之互動關係。我們假設民眾對於政府如何分配預算的想法來自於某種長期的、獨立於統獨立場或是兩岸關係的政治意向。 主要研究方法為調查研究，輔以縣市的決算資料。而調查研究又可分為電話調查以及網路調查。根據調查所得到的資料以及應用多層次分析，我們將觀察每一個縣市民眾對於各項政策預算要求增加的平均比例用來解釋縣市的預算之程度。 接下來，我們利用網路民調追蹤民眾的整體施政滿意度以及對於預算的偏好。然後，我們分析民眾是否會根據施政評價選擇現任者（包含同一政黨候選人）或是挑戰者，同時控制個人的政黨認同、家庭經濟狀況、過去投票行為等變數。 簡要而言，民意政治是本三年期計畫的主題，將探討政策意向、施政滿意度、政府預算之間的關係，以及運用網路民調測量對於預算的偏好及建立政策意向。

In Taiwan, previous research on budget distribution has seldom explored the role of public opinions on the process of policy-making. Moreover, public opinion polls merely emphasize issues at the national level, such as independence/unification and Taiwan’s relations with China. The link between public opinions and public policies has therefore received far less attention than needed for a long time. This study will examine people’s policy orientation, performance evaluations, and voting behavior with the survey data collected during the elections of mayor and magistrate in year 2013, and elections of five metropolitan mayors in year 2014. We assume that the mass public’s spending preferences stem from a long-standing policy orientation, which is independent from the independence/unification issue and national identity. In addition to poll results from telephone interview and internet surveys, we will collect budget data for each of twenties counties and cities (not including Kinmen and Lienchiang) to investigate the extent to which spending preference affects budget distribution. Based on individual- and aggregate-level data, the first goal of this three-year project is to assess the linkage between policy output in terms of budget distribution and public opinion. The second goal is to trace the performance evaluation by using internet surveys and to assess the extent to which it accounted for voting behavior. Moreover, we will use internet surveys to develop a better measurement of spending preference which, we believe, construct long-term standing policy orientation.