中俄能源合作對俄羅斯改變遠東地區發展政策之研究

Abstract

俄羅斯政府對遠東地區開發政策，長久以來一直傾向開放給亞太地區國家(尤其較歡迎東北亞的南韓及日本)參與，儘量避免開放給有邊界相鄰的國家中國大陸。但俄國現今經濟情況下已無法單靠己力開發遠東地區，便於2009初開始邀請中國大陸參與。俄國學者專家指稱莫斯科此舉已損害自身在遠東政策方面的戰略理論基礎。該理論的前題為俄國運用遠東及西伯利亞地區能源輸出所獲得的豐厚盈餘來開發該地區，並使俄國全面融入東北亞成為該區域主要強權。但結果是上述政策是失敗的。 2008年下半年全球金融危機除影響俄國經濟外，亦影響俄國掌控遠東地區的能力。梅德韋傑夫總統於2009年5月中旬表明，除非中國大陸大規模投資遠東地區，否則俄國開發遠東計畫將無法實現。梅氏坦承遠東地區經濟發展無法依賴俄國與歐洲的關係，梅氏強調遠東地區的發展戰略必須與老工業基地更新的中國振興東北計畫相協調。 現今開放遠東地區給中方投資，並較正面看待中國大陸對中亞的投資，此舉顯示俄國已改變對遠東地區及中亞的政策。俄國的「門戶開放」政策使中國大陸在此兩區域內的影響力大幅提升。中國大陸將逐漸成為該區域的安全管理者，而中國大陸首要目標即確保自身的各項投資(主要係能源方面)能安全無虞。

Russian government encourages Northeast countries, such as Japan and Korea to join Russian Far East Region development plan for a long time. To the contrary, Russia avoids the territory-neighboring country China to participate any Far East Region development plan at the same time. But now Russia cannot afford development plan by itself, it invited China to join the development plan in the beginning of 2009. Russian scholars denounced that this policy has suffered the basement of strategic theory in the development of Far East Region. This theory advises Russia develops this region by the sale of local crude oil and natural gas. If Russia invites China to join the development plan, it means that the strategic theory mentioned above fails. Global financial crisis bumps Russian Economy in 2008, and reduces the ability of control in the Far East Region. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev announced that unless China invests this region hugely, otherwise Far East Region development plan cannot come true. President Medvedev admitted Russia cannot depend on tremendous invests from Europe. Far East Region development plan should connect with the China’s Northeast Rehabilitation Plan.