美國衰落論及其對外交政策之影響

Abstract

自 2008 年美國發生金融危機，到 2012 年歐洲陸續爆發的債務危機，美國國力的強弱， 特別是與其他正在崛起的區域強權相較，成為國際關係學界及外交實務界關注之焦點。一派 學者認為，美國衰弱已成事實，必須調整對外政策最為因應；而另一派學者則持相反意見， 認為美國對於自身實力下滑的擔憂是週期性的信心危機。對於如此背道而馳的意見，本文首 先將回顧美國衰退論的正反論述，討論認知（perception）對於美國外交決策之影響，並藉由 衰退論所討論的五波衰退期，來觀察美國外交政策在此期間是否出現重大轉折。再者，本研 究將採取新古典現實主義（neoclassical realism）之觀點，分析認知對於外交政策之影響，本 研究將以當前美國衰落論作為案例，進行詳細討論。最後，本研究除了接受新古典現實主義 之觀點外，也將試圖建立一套評估美國國家實力之標準，分析當前美國衰落論之成因，並透 過相關指標的檢視，探討本次所謂美國衰落是否為真。本文的研究方法為「質性研究法」，以 「文獻分析法」與「深度訪談法」並行，希望透過過去文獻的正反論述，以及本文所提供的 衡量標準，進一步對於權力轉移論進行檢證，深信本計畫所驗證的結果將有助於分析美國外 交政策的取向，並由此提出政策建議，是為本計畫的主要貢獻。

This proposal aims to re-examine and analyze the so-called “American Declinism” and its impact on U.S. foreign policy. Some scholars argue that this time “it is real” for U.S. declining, while others maintain it is a cyclical statement and the U.S. is “still number one.” If anything, there is only the loss in confidence and Americans need to be reminded of what “used to be us.” To engage this heated debate in the U.S. and abroad, this project will first review the arguments on American declinism since the end of the Second World War. The debate overtime actually reflect how American political elites and general public perceive the strength of the United States. This research thus will adopt neo-classical realism as an approach, to discern the relationship between perceptions and U.S. foreign policy outcomes. In addition, this project aims to establish a set of indicators that can contribute to our understanding of U.S. national capabilities. This research project adopts qualitative research method, through which documentary analysis and in-depth interviews will be employed to explore the essence of American declinism. With indicators provided by this project, we can better understand U.S. foreign policy after the 2008 financial crisis.