普丁第三任總統任期俄羅斯反對運動之研究

Abstract

2012年，後共俄羅斯二十年，普丁如願順利當選總統，三度入主克里姆林宮，總統 任期也已由原先的四年延長為六年。普丁主政的頭十二年期間（2000–2012年），雖見證 了俄羅斯的政治穩定與普丁的高施政滿意度，但在普丁總統可望尋求連任的下一個十二 年（2012–2024年）主政伊始，政權的正當性卻面臨了來自公民行動主義復甦的挑戰。 在國家–社會關係的脈絡下，本研究計畫旨在探討普丁的第三任總統任期俄羅斯政治體 系的本質是否會改變？反對運動的組成與類型為何、能否持續？

In 2012, twenty years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Vladimir Putin has successfully returned to his third presidency, whose tenure has extended from four years to six years. The past twelve years of Putin’s paramount rule (2000-2012), Russia had witnessed political stability, and Putin had enjoyed high approval rating. In the beginning of the second twelve years of Putin’s two-term presidency (2012-2024), the regime’s legitimacy has been confronted with the awakening civic activism. In the context of state-society relations, the study aims to explore the following questions during Putin’s third presidency: will the nature of Russia’s political system change? What are the components and pattern of opposition movement? Will the opposition movement be sustainable?