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Title: 非線型時間序列之動態競爭模型
Dynamic Competing Model of Non-linear Time Series
Authors: 李奇穎
Lee, Chi-Ying
Contributors: 吳柏林
Wu Berlin
Lee, Chi-Ying
Keywords: 非線型時間序列
Non-linear time series
Time variant system
Genetic Algorithms
Date: 1996
Issue Date: 2016-04-28 13:30:07 (UTC+8)
Abstract: 時間序列分析發展至今,常常發現動態資料的走勢,隨著時間過程而演變.所以傳統的模式配適常無法得到很好的解釋,因此許多學者提出不同的模型建構方法.但是對於初始模式族的選擇,卻充滿相當的主觀與經驗認定成份.本文針對時變型時間序列分析,考慮利用知識庫,由模式庫來判斷初始模式.再藉由遺傳演算法的觀念,建立模式參數的遺傳關係.我們把這種遺傳演算法,稱之為時變遺傳演算法.針對台灣省國中數學教師人數,分別以時變遺傳演算法,狀態空間,與單變量ARIMA來建構模式,並作比較.比較結果發現,時變遺傳演算法較能掌握資料反轉的趨勢,且預測值增加較為平緩.因此時變遺傳演算法在模式建構上將是個不錯的選擇.
In time series analysis, we find often the trend of dynamic
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