中華民國嚇阻戰略之評析

Abstract

「有效嚇阻」是我國軍事戰略的基石之一。然而，國內對此概念的看法分歧，導致理論與實際有所落差，產生不利於嚇阻戰略的風險，也影響到後續的兵力規劃、武器獲得、資源分配與軍事準則運用。本文首先釐清嚇阻的意義、類型、構成要素與不定性，接著詮釋台灣嚇阻戰略理論與實際的不同思維，並從報復性與拒止性二個面向及溝通、能力、可信度三個因素，來探討台灣嚇阻戰略的現況、所面臨的兩難與衍生的相關問題。研析結果顯示：雖然在思維上台灣傾向報復性嚇阻，但實際作為上仍趨向拒止性嚇阻，而在溝通、能力與可信度方面則仍有待加強。最後也討論了美國在兩岸嚇阻戰略中所扮演的角色。

”Effective deterrence” is a corner stone in the Republic of China’s (ROC`s) military strategy. Divided opinions and incongruent strategic thinking among domestic experts have affected the effectiveness of deterrence strategy. It also affects the subsequent forces planning, weapon acquisition, resources allocation, and military doctrine. This study first examines the meaning, category, and elements of deterrence. It then investigates ROC`s different deterrence concepts with a focus on the existing gap between theory and reality. Finally, the authors discuss the current status and problems of ROC`s deterrence strategy from the viewpoints of punishment and denial and the three constructs of deterrence-communication, capability and credibility. This study shows that while ROC intends to develop a more punishment-oriented deterrence strategy, while in reality, it is closer to a denial one.