美國導彈防衛核武態勢評估對中國核武政策影響

Abstract

美國正在發展中的導彈防衛體系及公佈的核武態勢評估，給中國的核武發展帶來衝擊。其涉及中國與美國的核武戰略平衡與中國的國家安全、核武使用門檻可能降低及引發潛在核軍備競賽、全球不擴散議題、外太空軍事競賽以及中國對台灣的政策等。中國的因應之道是，在考慮中國核武存活率和可靠度技術突破基礎上，適度增加長程核武數量，而不是大量增加攻擊性長程核武數量。

The US Missile Defense system and the policy implications of the announced Nuclear Posture Review have impacted on China`s Nuclear Weapons policy. Issues involved include: strategic balance and China`s national security, nuclear weapons threshold, arms race, global non-proliferation, the militarization of outer space, and China`s military policy vis a vis Taiwan. China responded by moderately deploying more long range missiles rathe than increasing strategic weapons.