消失的中間選民：2004年總統大選對空間理論的修正

Abstract

本文發現中間選民理論對2004年大選適用時應予修正，雖然候選人集中在統獨的政策向度上，但影響選民投票的態度除了統獨的面向，還有第二個可以分開來的向度，即對現狀的態度。本文以後殖民理論為補充，推論第二向度影響到選民對候選人的信任，再用認知不協調理論補充，推論選民隨所信任候選人調整政策偏好。如此說明中間選民理論所不能解釋的現象，即當選的陳水扁採用非溫和化的競選策略，卻能扭轉落後的情形成為當選。後殖民理論主要指向選民的雙趨衝突。所謂雙趨，便是同時可趨統與可趨獨，或同時避統與避獨。簡言之，雙趨選民可以是不希望改變統獨之現狀，也可以是希望改變以獲得任何一個穩定的身份，但並不計較是統或獨。雙趨選民的存在，修正了空間理論的適用。即在一對一選舉中的單一政策議題空間上，可以不存在所謂的中間選民。

The Presidential campaign of 2004 in Taiwan fits the archetype of the spatial theory of voting. However, the incumbent party seemed to violate the median voter theorem by winning through a radical approach on the single issue of Taiwan independence vs. China reunification. This paper recruits alternative interpretations from the cognitive dissonance theory and postcolonial hybridity theory. It argues that the issue space defined by the campaigning parties is not always the same as it is understood by the voters. While having their own issue space, voters nonetheless change their position to follow those leaders they trust.