冷戰與後冷戰時期國防需求之研究

Abstract

1991年蘇聯解體（即冷戰結束），國際情勢似乎進入較承平的時代，是否世界各國會因此大幅減低其國防需求呢？此為一值得深入探討的議題。基此，本研究透過冷戰結束前後時期實質國防預算的比較，以及分析影響兩階段實質國防預算消長的可能因素，期望有助於瞭解國際問對國防安全的認知。研究中以1982至2001年，136個國家的實質國防預算作為國防需求程度的衡量變項，利用成對t檢定、無母數方法、變異數分析，以及迴歸模式進行研究假說的檢定。研究結果顯示：1.整體言，後冷戰時期的實質國防需求呈現降低的現象；2.緊臨前蘇聯的國家對蘇聯解體事件所引發的國防需求調整顯著大於其他非周邊國家；3.「GDP成長率」愈高的國家，國防需求成長率亦愈高；4.政治較民主的國家有較高的國防需求。

International environment seems to be perceived less confrontational and more peaceful after the dissolution of the former Soviet Union in 1991. However, issues of whether and how countries respond to this change of environment remain largely unexplored. In order to gain insight into these issues, we first compared real defense budget in the two periods of Cold War and post-Cold War, and then examined factors which might lead to detected change.\r\nThis study focuses on 136 countries in the period from 1982 to 2001, a period covering the change of international environment. Four hypotheses were set up and then examined using paired t test, ANOVA, and multiple regression analysis methods. Our major findings clearly reveal the following points. First, a great majority of countries reduced their defense demands in the post-Cold War period. Second, countries surrounding the former Soviet Union experienced greater downward adjustments in defense demands. Third, GDP growth of a country is positively associated with its defense demand growth. Finally, our findings indicate that countries with higher degree of democracy tend to keep higher defense demands.