Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://ah.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/94879


Title: 情報決策象限理論之建構與個案分析-孫子兵法情報概念的反思
The Construction and Case Study of the Quadrangular Theory for Intelligence-Decision:Reflection on the Intelligence Thought of Sun Tzu.
Authors: 紀光陽
Chi, Kuang Yang
Contributors: 李英明
宋筱元

Lee,Ying Ming
Song,Sheau Yuan

紀光陽
Chi,Kuang Yang
Keywords: 孫子兵法
情報
信息
認知
決策
象限理論
決策方程式
美伊戰爭
The Art of War by Sun-tzu
intelligence
information
cognition
decision-making
Quadrant theory
Equation of decision
Second Gulf War
Date: 2009
Issue Date: 2016-05-09 12:35:34 (UTC+8)
Abstract: 「情報」與「決策」存在著高度的密切關係,「情報」正確而及時則相對提高「決策」的正確性;反之,則降低「決策」的正確性。但同一個「情報」對不同的個人而言,會產出不同的「決策」結果,此即是「決策」不僅與「情報」有關,亦與個人的「認知」條件有著密切的關係。
  因此,本文透過孫子兵法「情報」與「決策」的關係,架構出孫子的決策邏輯與位階性,再以此建構出情報決策「象限理論」,企圖系統性地解釋「情報」條件與決策者「認知」條件的複雜關係,並藉由第二次美伊戰爭的決策過程作為例證,說明導致決策錯誤的重要因素。並由「象限理論」中第一象限區域,及美伊戰爭決策缺失中,檢討並演繹出「國家安全決策新思維」,文中指出一個專業且中立的情報機關,除了要提升情報信息的客觀性外,更要避免、改變決策者先入為主的錯誤認知。經由本文所提出的「象限理論」、「決策方程式」、「個案分析」、「國家安全決策新思維」,將有助於瞭解並加速決策產出的質量與效能,進而有利於優質決策的產出。
There is highly relationship between intelligence and decision-making. The correct and on time intelligence will make a good policy; but the wrong or slow intelligence will make a bad policy, on the contrary. The same intelligence for different individuals will result in different decision-making, which means decision-making has high relationship with intelligence and personal cognition.
For this reason, this article constructs The Quadrangular Theory of Intelligence and Decision-making based on The Art of Sun-tzu theory, to explain the complicated relation between intelligence and personal cognition, as well as to state the important factor which leads to the wrong decision-making in the Second Gulf War.
This article also point out an important concept: the professional and intelligence agencies will not only improve the objectively intelligence, but also will avoid policymaker's prejudiced cognition. The Quadrangular Theory of Intelligence and Decision-making will help to understand the whole situation and accelerate the high quality and high efficiency decision-making process.
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Description: 博士
國立政治大學
國家發展研究所
91261502
Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0912615021
Data Type: thesis
Appears in Collections:[國家發展研究所] 學位論文

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