Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
https://ah.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/94879| 題名: | 情報決策象限理論之建構與個案分析－孫子兵法情報概念的反思 The Construction and Case Study of the Quadrangular Theory for Intelligence-Decision：Reflection on the Intelligence Thought of Sun Tzu. |
作者: | 紀光陽 Chi, Kuang Yang |
貢獻者: | 李英明<br>宋筱元 Lee,Ying Ming<br>Song,Sheau Yuan 紀光陽 Chi,Kuang Yang |
關鍵詞: | 孫子兵法 情報 信息 認知 決策 象限理論 決策方程式 美伊戰爭 The Art of War by Sun-tzu intelligence information cognition decision-making Quadrant theory Equation of decision Second Gulf War |
日期: | 2009 | 上傳時間: | 9-五月-2016 | 摘要: | 「情報」與「決策」存在著高度的密切關係，「情報」正確而及時則相對提高「決策」的正確性；反之，則降低「決策」的正確性。但同一個「情報」對不同的個人而言，會產出不同的「決策」結果，此即是「決策」不僅與「情報」有關，亦與個人的「認知」條件有著密切的關係。 \r\n 因此，本文透過孫子兵法「情報」與「決策」的關係，架構出孫子的決策邏輯與位階性，再以此建構出情報決策「象限理論」，企圖系統性地解釋「情報」條件與決策者「認知」條件的複雜關係，並藉由第二次美伊戰爭的決策過程作為例證，說明導致決策錯誤的重要因素。並由「象限理論」中第一象限區域，及美伊戰爭決策缺失中，檢討並演繹出「國家安全決策新思維」，文中指出一個專業且中立的情報機關，除了要提升情報信息的客觀性外，更要避免、改變決策者先入為主的錯誤認知。經由本文所提出的「象限理論」、「決策方程式」、「個案分析」、「國家安全決策新思維」，將有助於瞭解並加速決策產出的質量與效能，進而有利於優質決策的產出。 There is highly relationship between intelligence and decision-making. The correct and on time intelligence will make a good policy; but the wrong or slow intelligence will make a bad policy, on the contrary. The same intelligence for different individuals will result in different decision-making, which means decision-making has high relationship with intelligence and personal cognition.\r\nFor this reason, this article constructs The Quadrangular Theory of Intelligence and Decision-making based on The Art of Sun-tzu theory, to explain the complicated relation between intelligence and personal cognition, as well as to state the important factor which leads to the wrong decision-making in the Second Gulf War.\r\nThis article also point out an important concept: the professional and intelligence agencies will not only improve the objectively intelligence, but also will avoid policymaker`s prejudiced cognition. The Quadrangular Theory of Intelligence and Decision-making will help to understand the whole situation and accelerate the high quality and high efficiency decision-making process. |
參考文獻: | 中文參考文獻\r\n書籍\r\n于長海（1994），《軍事系統決策研究》，北京：軍事科學出版社。\r\n孔令晟（1995），《大戰略通論》，臺北：好聯出版社。\r\n毛治國（2003），《決策》，臺北：天下雜誌出版社。\r\n王 沖、沙雪良（2002），《致勝奇招兵聖孫子》，臺北：希代書版股份有 \r\n 限公司。\r\n王永生（1999），《決策方略論》，北京：人民出版社。\r\n王雨田（1987），《控制論、信息論、系統科學與哲學》，北京：中國人民大學出版社。\r\n王逸舟（1998），《西方國際政治學:歷史與理論》，上海：上海人民出版 \r\n 社。\r\n包昌火（1991），《情報研究方法論》，北京：科學技術文獻出版社。\r\n安 平（2000），《活用孫子兵法與經商》，臺北：正展出版社。\r\n呂亞力（1984），《政治學方法論》，臺北：三民出版社。\r\n呂理州（1994），《明治維新：日本邁向現代化的歷程》，臺北：遠流出版 \r\n 社。\r\n宋筱元（1999），《國家情報問題之研究：情報與國家關係之分析》，桃園：\r\n 中央警察大學。\r\n巫和懋、夏 珍（2002），《賽局高手》，臺北：時報出版社。\r\n李世俊、楊世舉、蕈家瑞（1995），《活用孫子兵法. 經營篇, 經營者的決\r\n 策/管理/行銷/領導寶典》，臺北：遠流出版社。\r\n李耐國（2001）,《軍事情報研究》，北京：軍事科學出版社。\r\n李 靜（1994）,《科學思維的推理藝術》，臺北：淑馨出版社。\r\n李啟明（1996），《不戰而屈人之兵》，臺北：臺灣中華書局出版社。\r\n杜 陵（1978），《情報學》，桃園：中央警官學校。\r\n杜 陵（1988），《情報寫作藝術》，桃園：中央警官學校。\r\n岳劍波（1975），《信息環境論》，北京：書目文獻出版社。\r\n易克信、趙國琦（1992），《社會科學情報理論與方法》，北京：社會科學文\r\n 獻出版社。\r\n易君博（1993），《政治理論與研究方法》，臺北：三民書局。\r\n林碧炤（1987），《論國際政治的持續與轉變》，臺北：桂冠出版社。\r\n邱子豪（1995），《孫子兵法企業管理學》，臺北：漢宇出版社。\r\n胡文彬（1999），《情報學》，臺北：政治作戰學校。\r\n胡建恆（1968），《謀略戰研究》，臺北：政工幹部學校。\r\n席汝楫（1997），《社會與行為科學研究方法》，臺北:五南出版社。\r\n徐立新（2004），《兵聖孫子》，臺北：宜高文化出版社。\r\n桂京山（1977），《反情報工作概論》，桃園：中央警官學校。\r\n國家安全局（1963），《情報學》，臺北：國家安全局。\r\n張中勇（1993），《後冷戰時期國家安全情報組織及其任務之研究》，臺北：\r\n 國科會研究報告。\r\n張中勇（1993），《情報研究-從情報活動的實際實踐與理論解析觀點探\r\n 討》，桃園：中央警官學校。\r\n張中勇（1993），《情報與國家安全之研究》，臺北：三鋒出版社。\r\n張中勇（1994），《情報研究-從情報活動的實際實踐與理論解析觀點探\r\n 討》，臺北：行政院國家科學委員會科資中心。\r\n張式琦（1971），《作戰情報》，臺北：情報學校。\r\n張式琦（1983），《國家情報》，臺北：中華戰略學會大陸研究會。\r\n張春興（1975），《心理學》，臺北：東華書局。\r\n張殿清（1997），《特殊的較量:情報與反情報》，北京：世界知識出版社。\r\n張殿清（2001），《情報與反情報》，臺北：時英出版社。\r\n張曉軍（2001），《武經七書:軍事情報思想研究》，北京：軍事科學出版\r\n 社。\r\n許芳銘（1999），《一個決策過程的系統式思考型構》，新竹：交通大學經營\r\n 管理研究所博士論文。\r\n陳一明（1992），《孫子兵法與決策》，河北：中州古籍出版社。\r\n陳海鳴（1990），《一個決策過程概念及架構的討論-從認知的觀點》，新\r\n 竹：國立交通大學管理科學研究所博士論文。\r\n陳湛勻（1999），《現代決策應用與方法分析》，臺北：五南出版社。\r\n陸忠偉（2003），《非傳統安全論》，北京：時事出版社。\r\n彭懷恩（1982），《決策論奇才：賽蒙》，臺北：允晨文化出版。\r\n游伯龍（1985），《行為與決策-知己知彼的基礎與應用》，臺北：中央研究\r\n 院。\r\n湯炎光（1963），《情報戰》，臺北：建華出版社。\r\n程方平（1988），《教育情報學簡論》，四川：四川教育出版社。\r\n鈕先鍾（1997），《孫子三論:從古兵法到新戰略》，臺北：麥田出版社。\r\n馮恩樁、謝仁興（1994），《情報研究學基礎》，北京：科學技術文藝出版\r\n 社。\r\n楊士毅（1991），《邏輯、民主、科學-方法論導讀》，臺北：書林出版社。\r\n楊少俊（1992），《孫子兵法的電腦研究》，北京：解放軍出版社。\r\n楊善群（1999），《孫子》，永和：貿騰發賣出版社。\r\n葉文倩（1988），《決策、目標與經營理念》，臺北：書泉出版社。\r\n鄒志仁（1991），《情報學基礎》，南京：南京大學出版社。\r\n褚良才（2002)，《孫子兵法研究與應用》，浙江：浙江大學出版社。\r\n趙保佑、李正平、李允豹（1992），《情報社會學》，北京：東方出版社。\r\n劉愷之（2002），《孫子兵法的智慧法則》，臺北：臺灣廣廈有聲圖書。\r\n蔡志忠（2004），《孫子兵法》，臺北：時報出版社。\r\n蔡萬助（2000），《21世紀軍事管理知識體系之研究》，臺北：華泰文化出\r\n 版社。\r\n鄭克禮（1996），《孫子兵法在當今世界的妙用》，臺北：方智出版社。\r\n閻晉中（1999），《軍事情報學》，北京：時事出版社。\r\n謝清佳（1989），《資訊概念架構的芻議及其應用》，新竹：交通大學管理科\r\n 學研究所博士論文。\r\n謝清佳（1996），《資訊管理：理論與實務》，臺北：智勝文化。\r\n魏 鏞（2001），《中華民國行政資訊體系之建立與展望》，臺北: 行政院\r\n 研究發展考核委員會編印。\r\n魏宏森（1988），《系統理論及其哲學思考》，北京：清華大學出版社。\r\n嚴定暹（2003），《孫子兵法活學活用》，臺北：凱信出版社。\r\n蘇韶懿（1998），《孫子兵法論述-結構及其現代管理意涵之研究》，新竹：\r\n 交通大學經營管理研究所博士論文。\r\n專書篇章\r\n宋學文（2000），〈全球化與非政府組織對國家關係的影響〉，收錄於吳英\r\n 明、林德昌編，《非政府組織》，臺北：商鼎文化出版社，頁67-91。\r\n林正義（1996），〈臺灣安全戰略〉，收錄於謝淑媛編，《台海安全情報》，\r\n 臺北：玉山出版社，頁45-70。\r\n羅森勃呂特、維納、別格羅（1969），〈行為、目的和目的論〉，《控制論哲\r\n 學問題譯文集》，北京：商務印書館出版社，頁1-17。\r\n佛.尼.洛博夫（1995），〈戰爭中的謀略〉，《當代國外軍事名著精選》，\r\n 北京：軍事誼文出版社，頁550-572。\r\n翻譯書籍\r\nBossidy, Larry and Ram Charan着 李 明譯（2003），《執行力》，\r\n 臺北：天下文化出版社。\r\nFarago, Ladislas著 法務部調查局譯（1955），《智慧之戰》，臺北：內\r\n 政部調查局。\r\nHirshleifer, Jack著 劉廣靈、李紹榮譯（2000），《不確定性或信息分\r\n 析》，北京：中國社會科學出版社。\r\nHulnick, Arthur S.著，國防部譯（2006），《情報與國土安全》，臺\r\n 北：國防部譯印，頁18。\r\nOdom, William E.著，國防部譯（2005），《情報改革》，臺北：國防部\r\n 譯印。\r\nPeters, B. Guy著，陳永芳譯（2003），《比較政治的理論與方法》，臺\r\n 北：韋伯出版社。\r\nRobbinns, Stephen P.著，林思伶、李炳林譯（2005），《決策DNA》，\r\n 臺北：培生教育出版社。\r\nSchramm, Wilbur L.著，余也魯譯（1990），《傳學概論：傳媒‧信息與\r\n 人》，香港：海天出版社。\r\nK. B. 塔拉卡諾夫著，何士彬譯（1993），《情報學》，北京：書目文獻出\r\n 版社。\r\n列爾涅爾（1980），《控制論基礎》，北京：科學出版社，頁85-86。\r\n期刊及學術會議文章\r\n老 參（1975），〈泛論軍事情報-情報是現代國防的第一線〉，《三軍聯合\r\n 月刊》，第13卷3期，頁95-106。\r\n李英明、賴皆興（2005），〈從理性博奕向結構博奕轉移：兼論兩岸結構博\r\n 奕〉，《遠景基金會季刊》，第6卷4期，頁1-29。\r\n汪毓瑋（2002），〈資訊時代之情報在危機決策中之作用與面臨之問題〉，\r\n 《中華戰略學刊》，秋季刊，頁127-166。\r\n宋筱元（1998），〈從臺商間諜案論獨裁政權之情報機構〉，《理論與政\r\n 策》，第47期，頁48-59。\r\n宋筱元（1998），〈情報研究－一門新興的學科〉，《警政學報》，第33\r\n 期，頁459-479。\r\n宋筱元、紀光陽（2007），〈論孫子兵法中的情報決策觀〉，《中央警察大學\r\n 警學叢刊》，第37卷第4期，頁43-68。\r\n林吉郎（2002），〈我國國家安全與危機管理：整合性緊急管理政策與機\r\n 制〉，《國防雜誌》，第17卷9期，頁87-105。\r\n紀光陽（2007），〈論孫子兵法的决策思維-情報觀點的反思〉，《北臺灣科\r\n 技學院通識學報》，第3期，頁245-263。\r\n孫伯先（1971），〈論戰爭原則-安全與情報〉，《情報學術研究》，第7\r\n 期，頁24-39。\r\n馬費成（2002），〈論情報學的基本原理〉，《資訊傳播與圖書館學》，第8\r\n 卷3期，頁35-44。\r\n高希均（2003），〈領導智慧與執行能力〉，《遠見雜誌》，第204期，頁\r\n 30-31。\r\n許志強（2002），〈情報學多元進化理論研究〉，《資訊傳播與圖書館學》，\r\n 第8卷4期，頁55-66。\r\n章一平（1997），〈冷戰後世界的新安全觀〉，《現代國際關係》，第2期，\r\n 頁38-41。\r\n鈕先鍾（1973），〈國家安全政策，一個隱晦的領域〉，《軍事譯粹》，第\r\n 22卷7期，頁3-21。\r\n黃秋龍（2004），〈非傳統安全的理論與實踐〉，《展望與探索》，第2卷4\r\n 期，頁11-22。\r\n劉慶元（2002），〈國家安全戰略理論探析〉，《中華戰略學刊》，冬季刊，\r\n 頁23-54。\r\n瑩 蒼（1969），〈研讀總統政治作戰情報戰訓示之心得〉，《情報學術研\r\n 究》，第2期，頁1-20。\r\n蔡政修（2004），〈911事件後的美國國家安全戰略：以波灣戰爭與北韓核子\r\n 危機為例〉，《問題與研究》，第43卷6期，頁129-165。\r\n繆 園（2002），〈20世紀90年代以來日本情報科學與圖書館情報學的發\r\n 展〉，《資訊傳播與圖書館學，第8卷3期，頁85-92。\r\n謝志淵（2003），〈從情報學發展趨勢探討國軍戰場情報準備工作之發展〉，\r\n 《陸軍學術月刊》，第39卷458期，頁59-69。\r\n嚴怡民（1992），〈情報學研究現狀與展望〉，《情報學報》，第13卷1期，\r\n 頁1-12。\r\n嚴怡民（1996），〈走向21世紀的情報學〉，《圖書情報知識》，第2期，頁\r\n 5-12。\r\n蘇進強（2003），〈國家安全與危機管理機制〉，《新世紀智庫論壇》，第\r\n 21期，頁4-25。\r\n沈玄池（2003），〈美伊戰爭與全球外交動向〉，中興大學全球和平戰略研究\r\n 中心，2003年4月11日。\r\n <http://cgpss. nchu.edu.tw /modules/ wfsection/ \r\n article.php? articleid=78>\r\n\r\n西文參考文獻\r\nBooks\r\nAdler, Mortimer J. (1963), Philosophy, Chicago:Encyclopedia\r\n Britannica. \r\nAlexander, Milton J. (1974), Information Systems Analysis: Theory and Applications, Chicago: Science Research \r\n Associates.\r\nAmeringer, Charles D. (1990), U.S. Foreign Intelligence: \r\n The Secret Side of American Society, Le×ington: Lexington\r\n Books.\r\nAndrews, Linda W. (2003), Intelligence, New York: Franklin \r\n Watts.\r\nBabbie, Earl R. (1989), The Practice of Social Research, \r\n California: Wadsworth Publishing.\r\nBall, Desmond (2003), China`s Signals Intelligence \r\n (SIGINT): Satellite Programs,Canberra: Strategic and \r\n Defence Studies Centre.\r\nBamford, James (2005), A Pretext for War: 9/11, Iraq, and\r\n the Abuse of America`s intelligence Agencies, New York: \r\n Anchor Books.\r\nWorld Bank Staff Author (1997), World Development Report,\r\n Washington D. C..: World Bank Publications.\r\nBar-Joseph, Uri (1995), Intelligence Intervention in the \r\n Politics of Democratic States: The United States, Israel,\r\n and Britain, University Park, Pennsylvania: The \r\n Pennsylvania State University Press.\r\nBarrett, David M. (2005), The CIA & Congress: The Untold \r\n Story from Truman to Kennedy, Lawrence, Kan.: University \r\n Press of Kansas.\r\nBaylis, John and Steve Smith (1997), The Globalization of \r\n World Politics: An Introduction to International \r\n Relations, New York: Oxford University Press.\r\nBerg, Bruce (1995), Qualitative Research Methods for the \r\n Social Sciences, Boston: Allyn & Bacon.\r\nBerkowitz, Bruce D. and Allan E. Goodman (1989), Strategic \r\n Intelligence for American National Security, Princeton, \r\n New Jersey: Princeton University Press.\r\nBerkowitz, Bruce D. and Allan E. Goodman (2000), Best \r\n Truth: Intelligence in the Information Age, New Haven: \r\n Yale University Press.\r\nBerkwitz, Morton and Peter G. Bock (eds.) (1965), American \r\n National Security, New York: Free Press.\r\nBerlinski, David (1979), 0n Systems Analysis: An Essay \r\n Concerning the Limitations on Some Mathematical Methods \r\n in the Social, Political and Biological Science, Mass: \r\n MIT Press.\r\nBest, Richard A. (2005), Intelligence Reorganization \r\n Proposals, 1949-2004, New York: Novinka.\r\nBlumenthal Sherman C. (1969), MIS-A Framework for Planning \r\n and Development, New Jersey: Prentice-Hall.\r\nBochenski, Joseph M. (1972), Philosophy: An Introduction, \r\n New York: Harper & Row. \r\nBohman, James (2000), New Philosophy of Social Science,\r\n Cambridge: MIT Press.\r\nBorn, Hans (2005), Who`s Watching the Spies: Establishing \r\n Intelligence Service Accountability, Dulles, Va.: Potomac\r\n Books.\r\nBoulding, Kenneth E. (1953), The Image: Knowledge in Life \r\n and Society, Ann Arbor:University of Michigan Press.\r\nBrashaw, Nicholas C. (2001), Signals Intelligence, the \r\n British and the War in Yugoslavia 1941-1944, Southampton: \r\n University of Southampton, Dept. of History.\r\nBraybrooke, David and Charles Lindblom (1963), A Strategy \r\n of Decision: Policy Evaluation as a Social Process, New \r\n York: Free Press of Glencoe.\r\nBreckinridge, Scott D. (1986), The CIA and the U. S. \r\n Intelligence System, Boulder:Westview Press.\r\nBurch, John G. (1979), Information Systems: Theory and \r\n Practice, New York: Wiley.\r\nBush, George W. (2002), Nation Strategy to Combat Weapons \r\n of Mass Destruction, Washington, D. C.: The White House.\r\nBuzan, Barry (1997), Security: A New Framework for \r\n Analysis, Boulder, Colo.: Lynne Rienner Publishing.\r\nBynner, John (1979), Social Research: Princip1es and \r\n Procedures, New York: The Open University Press. \r\nCharters, David A. (1996), Intelligence Analysis and \r\n Assessment, London; Portland, Or.: Frank Cass.\r\nChatterjee, Kalyan and William Samuelson (2001), Game \r\n Theory and Business Applications, Boston, Mass.: Kluwer \r\n Academic Publishing.\r\nCianciolo, Anna T. (2004), Intelligence : A Brief History,\r\n Malden, MA: Blackwell Publishing.\r\nCimbala, Stephen J. (ed. ) (1987), Intelligence and \r\n Intelligence Policy in a Democratic Society, New York: \r\n Transnational Publishing.\r\nClark, Robert M. (2004), Intelligence Analysis: A Target-\r\n Centric Approach, Washington, D. C.: CQ Press.\r\nClavell, James (ed.) (1983), The Art of War: Sun Tzu, New \r\n York: Delacorte Press.\r\nClausewitz, Carl V. (1976), On War, Translated by Louise \r\n and Aylmermaude, Oxford, N. Y.; Oxford University Press.\r\nCole, Stephen (1992), Making Science: Between Nature and \r\n Society, Cambridge, Mass.:Harvard University. \r\nCommission on CIA Activites Within the United States \r\n (1975), Report to the President,Washington, D. C.: U. S. \r\n Government Printing Office.\r\nCooper, Joseph D. (1961), The Art of Decision-Making, New\r\n York: Doubleday.\r\nCordesman, Anthony H. (2003), The Iraq War: Strategy, \r\n Tactics, and Military Lessons , Washington, D. C.: Center \r\n for Strategic and International Studies Press.\r\nCordesman, Anthony H. and Arleigh A. Burke (2003), \r\n Intelligence Failures in the Iraq War, Center for \r\n Strategic and International, Washington, D. C.: Center \r\n for Strategic and International Studies Press.\r\nCordesman, Anthony H. and Arleigh A. Burke (2003), The \r\n Lessons of the Iraq War: Issues Relating to Grand \r\n Strategy, Washington, D. C.: Center for Strategic and \r\n International Studies Press.\r\nDaalder, Ivo H. and James M. Lindsay (2003), America \r\n Unbound: The Bush Revolution in Foreign Policy/Ivo H. \r\n Daalder, James M. Lindsay, Washington, D. C.: Brookings \r\n Institution.\r\nDavenport, Thomas H. (2007), Competing on Analytics: The \r\n New Science of Winning, Boston, Mass.: Harvard Business\r\n School Press.\r\nDoane, James P. (2005), Dynamics of Homeland Security and \r\n National Defense, New York: McGraw-Hill.\r\nDoyal, Len (1986), Empiricism Explanation, and Rationality: \r\n An Introduction to the Philosophy of the Social Sciences,\r\n New York: Routledge & K. Paul.\r\nDrea, Edward J. (1992), MacArthur`s ULTRA: Codebreaking and \r\n the War Against Japan, Lawrence, Kansas: University Press \r\n of Kansas.\r\nEaston, David (1953), The Political System: An Inquiry into\r\n the State of Political Science,New York: Knopf.\r\nEaston, David (1965), A Systems Analysis of Politics Life, \r\n New York: John Wiley & Sons.\r\nEaston, David (1966), A Framework for Political Analysis,\r\n Macmallan: Free Press.\r\nFerris, John R. (2005), Intelligence and Strategy: Selected \r\n Essays, New York, NY: F. Cass.\r\nFoo, Check T. and Peter H. Grinyer (1995), Sun Tzu on \r\n Management: The Art of War in Contemporary Business \r\n Strategy, Singapore: Butterworth-Heineman Asia.\r\nFukuyama, Francis (2006), America at the Crossroads, \r\n Democracy, Power, and the Neoconservative Legacy, New \r\n Haven: Yale University Press.\r\nFuller, Steve (1997), Science, Buckingham: Open University \r\n Press. \r\nGabrys, Bogdan (2005), Do Smart Adaptive Systems Exist?: \r\n Best Practice for Selection and Combination of \r\n Intelligent Methods, Berlin: Springer.\r\nGilligan, Tom (2003), CIA Life: 10,000 days with the \r\n Agency, Boston: Intelligence Book Division.\r\nGodson, Roy (1981), Intelligence Requirements for the \r\n 1980`s: Covert Action. Washington, D. C.: National \r\n Strategy Information Center.\r\nGodson, Roy (1995), Dirty Tricks or Trump Cards: U.S. \r\n Covert Action and Counterintelligence, Washington, D. C.:\r\n Brassey`s. \r\nGodson, Roy (ed.) (1980), Intelligence Requirements for the \r\n 1980`s Counterintelligence, Washington, D. C.: National \r\n Strategy Information Center.\r\nGodson, Roy and Ernest R. May (eds) (1995), U. S. \r\n Intelligence at the Crossroads: Agendas for Reform, \r\n Washington, D. C.: Brassey`s.\r\nGraham, Bob (2004), Intelligence Matters: The CIA, The FBI,\r\n Saudi Arabia, and the Failure of America`s War on Terror,\r\n New York: Random House.\r\nGriffin, David R. (2005), The 9/11 Commission Report: \r\n Omissions and Distortions Northampton, Mass.: Olive\r\n Branch Press.\r\nGriffith, Samuel B. (1963), Sun Tzu: The Art of War, New \r\n York: Oxford University.\r\nGutjahr, Melanie (2005), The Intelligence Archipelago,\r\n Washington, D. C.: Joint Military Intelligence College.\r\nHalibozek, Edward P. (2005), Mergers and Acquisitions \r\n Security: Corporate Reorganizations and Security \r\n Management, Amsterdam; Boston: Elsever Butterworth \r\n Heinemann.\r\nHandel, Michael I. (1996), Masters of War: Classical \r\n Strategic Thought, London: Frank Cass.\r\nHarmon, Paul (1985), Expert System: Artificial Intelligence \r\n in Business, New York: John Willey.\r\nHawkings, David E. and Shan Rajagopal (2005), Sun Tzu and \r\n the Project Battleground: Creating ProjectStrategy \r\n from“The Art of War”, New York: Palgrave Macmillan.\r\nHedges, Larry V. (1985), Statistical Methods for Meta-\r\n Analysis, Orlando: Academic Press.\r\nHeld, David, Anthony McGRew, David Goldblatt and Jonathan\r\n Perraton (eds.) (1999), Global Transformations: Politics, \r\n Economics and Culture, Oxford: Polity Press.\r\nHeywood, Andrew (2002), Politics, New York: Palgrave \r\n Foundations.\r\nHimanen, Mervi (2003), The Intelligence of Intelligent \r\n Buildings: The Feasibility of the Intelligent Building \r\n Concept in Office Buildings, Espoo: Technical Research\r\n Centre of Finland.\r\nHirst, Rodney J. (1968), Philosophy: An Outline for the \r\n Intending Student, London: Routledge & K. Paul. \r\nHoffmann, Paul and Terplan Kornel (2005), Intelligence \r\n Support Systems: Technologies for Lawful Intercepts, Boca\r\n Raton: Auerbach Publications.\r\nHogarth, Robin M. (1979), Judgement and Choice: The \r\n Psychology of Decision, New York: John Wiley & Sons.\r\nHollingsworth, Mark and Fielding Nick (2003), Defending the\r\n Realm: Inside MI5 and the War on Terrorism, London: Andr\r\n Deutsch.\r\nHolt, Pat M. (1995), Secret Intelligence and Public Policy:\r\n A Dilemma of Democracy, Washington D. C.: CQ Press.\r\nHoltzman, Samuel (1989), Intelligent Decision Systems, \r\n Reading, Mass.: Addison- Wesley. \r\nHooker, Gregory (2005), Shaping the Plan for Operation \r\n Iraqi Freedom: The Role of Military Intelligence \r\n Assessments, Washington, D. C.: Washington Institute for\r\n Near East Policy.\r\nHoover, Kenneth R. (1992), The Element of Social Scientific \r\n Thinking, New York: St. Martin`s.\r\nHuntington, Samuel P. (1991), The Third Wave: \r\n Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century, Okla:\r\n University of Oklahoma Press.\r\nHuntington, Samuel P. (1996), The Clash of Civilizations \r\n and the Remaking of Word Order, New York, N. K.: Simon &\r\n Schuster.\r\nJackson, Peter and Siegel Jennifer (2005), Intelligence and\r\n Statecraft: The Use and Limits of Intelligence in \r\n International Society, Westport, Conn.: Praeger.\r\nJervis, Robert (1976), Perception and Misperception in \r\n International Politics, Princeton, \r\nJohnson, Loch K. (1989), America`s Secret Power: The CIA in\r\n a Democratic Society, New York: Oxford University Press.\r\nJomini, Antoine H. (1995), The Art of War, Novato, Calif.:\r\n Presidio Press. \r\nJordan, Amos A. and William J. Taylor (eds.) (1984), \r\n American National Security: Policy and Process, \r\n Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins University.\r\nKam, Ephraim (1988), Surprise Attack, Cambridge, Mass.: \r\n Harvard University Press.\r\nKeegan, John (2003 ), Intelligence in War: Knowledge of the \r\n Enemy from Napoleon to Al-Qaeda, London: Hutchinson.\r\nKeegan, John (2004), Intelligence in War: The Value--and \r\n Limitations--of What the Military Can Learn about the \r\n Enemy, New York: Vintage Books.\r\nKeeney, Ralph L. and Howard Raiffa (1993), Decision with\r\n Multiple Objective: Preferences and Value Tradeoffs, New\r\n York: Cambridge University Press.\r\nKegley, Charles W. and Eugene R. Wittkopf (1981), World \r\n Politics: Trend and Transformation, New York: St. \r\n Martin`s Press.\r\nKent, Sherman (1949), Strategic Intelligence for American \r\n World Policy, New Jersey: Princeton University Press.\r\nKent, Sherman (1966), Strategic Intelligence for American\r\n World Policy, New Jersey: Princeton University Press .\r\nKickert, Walter J. M. (1980), Organization of Decision-\r\n Making: A Systems-Theoretical Approach, Amsterdam: North-\r\n Holland Publishing Company.\r\nKirk, Geoffrey S. (1970), Myth: Its Meaning and Functions \r\n in Ancient and Other Culture, Cambridge: University Press.\r\nKuper, Adam and Jessica Kuper (1985), The Social Science \r\n Encyclopedia, London Boston and Henley: Routledge & Kegan\r\n Paul.\r\nLadner, Roy and Petry Frederick E. (2005), Net-Centric \r\n Approaches to Intelligence and National Security, New\r\n York: Springer.\r\nLewin, Ronald (1978), ULTRA Goes to War, London: \r\n Hutchinson. New Jersey: Princeton University Press. \r\nLindblom, Charles E. (1968), The Policy Making Process, New \r\n York: Prentice-Hall.\r\nLindley, Dennis V. (1971 ), Making Decision, New York: \r\n Wiley-Interscience.\r\nLowenthal, Mark M. (2000 ), Intelligence: From Secrets to\r\n Policy, Washington, D. C.: CQ Press.\r\nLowenthal, Mark M. (2005), Intelligence: From Secrets to \r\n Policy, Washington, D.C.: CQ Press.\r\nLuger, George F. (2005), Artificial Intelligence: \r\n Structures and Strategies for Complex Problem Solving, \r\n New York: Addison-Wesley.\r\nMacksey, Kenneth (2004), The Searchers: Radio Intercept in\r\n Two World Wars, London: Cassell.\r\nMann, James (2004), Rise of the Vulcans: The History of\r\n Bush`s War Cabinet, New York: Penguin Books.\r\nMarkle, Donald E. (2004), Spies and Spymasters of the Civil \r\n War, New York: Hippocrene Books.\r\nMarshall, Kneale T. (1995), Decision Making and \r\n Forecasting: With Emphasis on Model Building and Policy \r\n Analysis, New York: McGraw-Hill. \r\nMcneilly, M. (1996), Sun Tzu and the Art of Business: Six\r\n Strategic Principles for Managers, New York: Oxford \r\n University.\r\nMcNeilly, Mark (2001), Sun Tzu and the Art of Modern \r\n Warfare, New York: Oxford University.\r\nMinford, John (2002), The Art of War: Sun Tzu, New York: \r\n Viking. \r\nMoens, Alexander (2004), The Foreign Policy of George W. \r\n Bush: Values, Strategy, and Loyalty, Burlington VT: \r\n Ashgate Publishing.\r\nMorse, Edward L. (1976), Modernization and the \r\n Transformation of International Relation,New York: The\r\n Free Press.\r\nNath, Dilip C. (2004), Intelligence Imperatives for India, \r\n New Delhi: India First Foundation.\r\nNational, Defense University (1996), Strategic Assessment, \r\n Washington, D. C.: Government Printing Office.\r\nNational Security Strategy of the United States (2002), \r\n Washington, D. C.: U. S. Government Printing Office.\r\nNeilson, Robert E. (1997), Sun Tzu and Information Warfare,\r\n Washington, D. C.: National Defense University.\r\nNguyen, Hung T. and Berlin Wu (2006), Fundamentals of \r\n Statistics with Fuzzy Data , New York: Springer.\r\nNye, Joseph S. (1990), The Changing Nature of American \r\n Power, New York: Basic Books.\r\nOseth, John M. (1985), Regulating U. S. Intelligence \r\n Operations: A Study in Definition of the National \r\n Interest, Lexington, Kentucky: The University Press of\r\n Kentucky.\r\nPadelford, Norman J. and George A. Lincoln (1954), \r\n International Politics: Foundations of International \r\n Relations, New York: Macmillan.\r\nPerner, Petra (2002), Advance s in Data Mining: \r\n Applications in E- Commerce, Medicine, and Knowledge \r\n Management, Berlin: New York: Springer.\r\nPlatt, Washington (1957), Strategic Intelligence \r\n Production: Basic Principles, New York:Frederick A. \r\n Praeger.\r\nPopper, Karl R. (1972), Objective Knowledge: An \r\n Evolutionary Approach, Oxford: Clarendon Press. Press of\r\n America.\r\nPowers, Thomas (2004), Intelligence Wars: American Secret \r\n History from Hitler to Al-Qaeda, New York: New York \r\n Review Books.\r\nRagin, Charles C. (2000), Fuzzy Set Social Science, \r\n Chicago: The University of Chicago.\r\nRanney, Austin (1996), Governing: An Introduction to \r\n Political Science, Upper Saddle River, New Jersey: \r\n Prentice-Hall.\r\nRansom, Harry H. (1970), The Intelligence Establishment, \r\n Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press.\r\nRappaport, Alfred (1975), Information for Decision Making:\r\n Quantitative and Behavioral Dimensions, Englewood Cliffs,\r\n NEW JERSEY: Prentice-Hall.\r\nRichelson, Jeffrey (1995), The U. S. Intelligence \r\n Community, Boulder, Colo.: Westview Press.\r\nRicks, Thomas E. (2006), Fiasco: The American Military \r\n Adventure in Iraq, New York: The Penguin Press.\r\nRoberts, Jonathan M. (1988), Decision-Making During \r\n International Crisis, New York: St. Martin Press.\r\nRumbaugh, Duane M. (2003), Intelligence of Apes and Other \r\n Rational Beings, New Heaven: Yale University Press.\r\nRyan, Frank X. (2002), Science, Humanism and the Scopes \r\n Trial, Bristol, England: Thoemmes Press. \r\nSawyer, Ralph D. (1993), The Seven Military Classics of\r\n Ancient China , Boulder: Westview Press.\r\nScanlan, Burt K. (1973), Principles of Management and \r\n Organizational Behavior, New York: John Wiley and Sons.\r\nSchmitt, Samuel A. (1969), Measuring Uncertainty: An \r\n Elementary Introduction to Bayesian Statistics, Mass.: \r\n Addison-Wesley.\r\nSchulhofer, Stephen J. (2005), Rethinking the Patriot Act :\r\n Keeping America Safe and Free, New York: Century \r\n Foundation Press.\r\nSchwarz, Brita (ed.) (1985),“Guidance for \r\n Decision,”Handbook of System Analysis, New York: Oxford.\r\nShannon, Claude E. (1949), The Mathematical Theory of \r\n Communication, Urbana: University of Illinois Press.\r\nShapere, Dudley (1984), Galileo: A Philosophical Study, \r\n Chicago: University of Chicago Press.\r\nShulsky, Abram N. (1993), Silent Warfare: Understanding the\r\n World of Intelligence, Washington, D. C.: Brassey`s（US）.\r\nSilbert, Leslie (2004), The Intelligencer, New York: Atria \r\n Books.\r\nSilverman, David (1993), Interpreting Qualitative Data, \r\n Newbury Park, CA: Sage.\r\nSimon, Herbert A. (1957), Administrative Behavior, New \r\n York: Macmillian.\r\nSimon, Herbert A. (1960), The New Science of Management \r\n Decision, New York: Harper Row.\r\nSimon, Herbert A. (1976), Administrative Behavior, New \r\n York: The Free Press.\r\nSimon, Herbert A. and Allen Newell (1972), Human Problem \r\n Solving, Englewood Cliffs, NEW JERSEY: Prentice Hall.\r\nSimon, Herbert A. and James G. March (1958), Organization,\r\n New York: John Wiley & Sons. Inc..\r\nSolso, Robert L. (1988), Cognitive Psychology, Boston: \r\n Allyn and Bacon. \r\nSteinbruner, John D. (1974), The Cybernetic Theory of \r\n Decision: New Dimensions of Political Analysis, \r\n Princeton, NEW JERSEY: Princeton University Press.\r\nSternberg, Robert J. (1985), Beyond IQ: A Triachic Theory\r\n of Human Intelligence, New York: Cambridge University \r\n Press.\r\nSymeonidis, Andreas L. and Pericles A. Mitkas (2004),\r\n Intelligent Agents for Data Mining and Information \r\n Retrieval, Hershey, Pa.: Idea Group Publishing.\r\nSymeonidis, Andreas L. and Pericles A. Mitkas (2005), Agent\r\n intelligence Through Data Mining, New York: Springer.\r\nThe Commission on the Roles and Capabilities of the United \r\n States Intelligence Community (1996), Preparing for the \r\n 21st Century: An Appraisal of U. S. Intelligence, \r\n Washington, D. C.: Government Printing Office.\r\nThomas, Gordon (2005), Gideon`s Spies: The Secret History\r\n of the Mossad, New York: Thomas Dunne Books.\r\nThomas, Troy S. (2004), Beneath the Surface: Intelligence \r\n Preparation of the Battlespace for Counterterrorism,\r\n Washington, D.C.: Joint Military Intelligence College.\r\nThompson, James D. (1967), Organization in Action, New \r\n York: McGraw-Hill Book Company.\r\nTolstoy, Leo (1983), War and Peace, Translated by Louise\r\n and Aylmermaude, Oxford,N. Y.; Oxford University Press.\r\nTuomela, Raimo (1985), Science, Action, and Reality, \r\n Boston: Sold and Distributed in the U. S. A. and Canada \r\n by Kluwer Academic Publishing. \r\nTurban, Efraim (1998), Decision Support System and \r\n Intelligent Systems, Upper Saddle River, NEW JERSEY: \r\n Prentice Hall. \r\nTurner, Stansfield (1985), Secrecy and Democracy: The CIA \r\n in Transition, Boston: Houghton Mifflin Company.\r\nTurner, Stansfield (2005), Burn before Reading: Presidents,\r\n CIA Directors, and Secret Intelligence, New York: \r\n Hyperion.\r\nU. S. Government Printing Office (1975), Rockefeller \r\n Commission Report to the President on CIA Activities with\r\n the United States: Washington, D. C.: U. S. Government \r\n Printing Office.\r\nUsama, Fayyad (1996), Mining Database: Toward Algorithms \r\n for Knowledge Discovery. Bulletin of the Technical \r\n Committee on Data Engineering, Menlo Park, Calif.: AAAI \r\n Press: MIT Press.\r\nViotti, Paul R. and Mark V. Kauppi (1993), International \r\n Relations Theory: Realism, Pluralism, Globalism, New \r\n York: Macmillan Publishing.\r\nWatson, Brue W., Susan M. Watson, and Gerald W. Hoople \r\n (1990), United States Intelligence: An Encyclopedia, New \r\n York: Garland Publishing.\r\nWeber, Werner (2005), Ambient Intelligence, New York: \r\n Springer.\r\nWeldon, Curt (2005), Countdown to Terror: The Top- Secret\r\n Information that Could Prevent the Next Terrorist Attack\r\n on America-and How the CIA Has Ignored it, Washington, D.\r\n C.: Regnery Publishing.\r\nWiener, Norbert (1962), Cybernetics, New York: MIT Press.\r\nZegart, Amy (1999), Flawed by Design: The Evolution of the\r\n CIA, JCS, and NSC, Stanford, Calif.: Stanford University \r\n Press.\r\nZey, Mary (1992), Decision Making: Alternatives to Rational \r\n Choice Mode, Newbury Park: Sage.Article in Specific Book\r\n Boorman, Scott A. (1972 ),“Deception in Chinese \r\n Strategy,”in William W. Whitson (ed.), The Military and\r\n Political Power in China in the 1970`s, New York: \r\n Praeger, pp. 313-337.\r\nBoot, Max (2004),“Myths about Neoconservatism,”in Irwin \r\n Stelzer (ed.), Neoconservatism, London: Atlantic Books, \r\n p. 39-55.\r\nDaniel, Donald C. and Katherine L. Herbig \r\n (1982),“Propositions on Military Deception,”in Donald \r\n C. Daniel (ed.), Strategic Military Deception, New York:\r\n Pergamon Press, pp. 3-30.\r\nFairbank, John K. (1974),“Introduction: Varieties of the \r\n Chinese Military Experience,”in Edward L. Dreyer, Frank \r\n A. Kierman and John K. Fairbank (eds.), Chinese Way in \r\n Warfare, Cambridge Mass: Harvard University Press, pp. 2-\r\n 26.\r\nFrei, Daniel (1978),“Introduction: The Rationales and\r\n Implication of Crisis Research,”in Danied Frei (ed.), \r\n International Crises and Crisis Management: An East-West\r\n Symposium, New York: Praeger Publishing, pp. 1-3.\r\nHastedt, Glenn (1991),“Controlling Intelligence: Defining \r\n the Problem,”in Glenn Hastedt (ed.), Controlling \r\n Intelligence, London: Frank Cass & Co.Ltd., pp. 3-23.\r\nHeyman, Hans (1985),“Intelligence/Policy \r\n Relationships,”in Alfred C. Maurer, Marion D. Tunstall, \r\n and James M. Keagle (eds.), Intelligence: Policy and \r\n Process , Boulder: Westview Press, pp. 57-66.\r\nKast, Fremont E. and James E. Rosenzweig (1972), “The \r\n Modern View: A Systems Approach,”in John B. Ronald \r\n (ed.), Systems Behavior, New York: Harper, pp. 14-28.\r\nPatrick, Watson (1995),“The FBI`s Changing Mission”in Roy \r\n Godson, Ernest R. May and Gary Schmitt (eds.), U.S. \r\n Intelligence at the Crossroads: Agendas for Reform,\r\n Washington, D.C: Brassey`s, pp. 145-162.\r\nRansom, Harry Howe (1987),“The Politicization of\r\n Intelligence,”in Stephen J. Cimbala (ed.), Intelligence\r\n and Intelligence Policy in a Democratic Society , New \r\n York: Dobbes Ferry, Transnational Publishing, p. 55-72.\r\nReitman, Walter R. (1964), “Heuristic Decision Procedures, \r\n Open Constraints, and the Structure of Ill-Defined \r\n Problems ,” in Maynard Shelley and Glenn L. Bryan \r\n (eds.), Human Judgments and Optimality, New York: Wiley & \r\n Sons, pp. 282-315.\r\nShulsky, Abram N. (1995),“What is Intelligence? Secrets \r\n and Competition Among State,”in Roy Godson, Ernest R. \r\n May, and Gary Schmitt (eds.), U. S. Intelligence at the \r\n Crossroad: Agendas for Reform, Washington D. C.: \r\n Brassey`s, pp. 22-45.\r\nSimon, Herbert A. (1978),“Information-Processing of Human \r\n Problem Solving,”In William K. Estes (ed.) , Handbook of\r\n Learning and Cognitive Processes, New York: Distributed \r\n by the Halsted Press Division of Wiley, pp. 271-295.\r\nThomas, Stafford T. (1985),“Intelligence Production and \r\n Consumption: A Framework of Analysis,”in Alfred C. \r\n Maurer, Marion D. Tunstall, and James M. Keagle \r\n (eds.),Intelligence: Policy and Process, Boulder, \r\n Co1o.: Westview Press, pp. 125-139.\r\nSullivan, David S. (1980),“Evaluation U.S. Intelligence \r\n Estimates,”in Roy Godson (ed.) , Intelligence \r\n Requirements for the 1980s: Analysis and Estimate, New\r\n Brunswick: Transaction Books, pp. 49-73.\r\nTipson, Frederick S. (1990),“National Security and the \r\n Role of Law,”in John N. Moore (ed.), National Security \r\n Law, Durham, N. C.: Carolina Academic Press, pp. 3-29.\r\nYovits, Marshall C. (1974),“A Generalized Concept for \r\n Analysis of Information,” in Anthony Debons (ed.), \r\n Information Science: Search for Identity, New York:\r\n Marcel Dekker, pp. 25-47.\r\nArticles\r\nAbenheim, Donald (2003),“Germany and the United States in \r\n the Age of Terror Ideas, Domestic, and the International\r\n System of States,”Naval War College Review, No. 4, pp. \r\n 62-82.\r\nAmos, Kovacs (1997),“Using Intelligence,”Intelligence and\r\n National Security, Vol. 12, No. 4, pp. 145-164.\r\nArquilla, John (1994),“The Strategic Implications of \r\n Information Dominance,”Strategic Review, Summer. May, \r\n pp. 24-30.\r\nBetts, Richard K. (1978),“Analysis, Wars, and Decision: \r\n Why Intelligence Failures are Inevitable,”World \r\n Politics, Vol. 31, No. 1, pp. 61-89.\r\nBinnendijk, Hans (1997),“Tin Cup Diplomacy,”The National \r\n Interest, No. 49, pp. 88-91.\r\nBrecher, Michael (1973),“Image, Process and Feedback in \r\n Foreign Policy,”American Political Science Review, Vol.\r\n 67, No. 1, pp. 74-97.\r\nBrookes, Bertram C. (1980),“The Foundation of Information\r\n Science. Part I. Philosophical Aspects,”Journal of \r\n Information Science, Vol. 2, No. 3, pp. 126-142.\r\nCartwright, Dorwing (1949),“Some Principles of Mass \r\n Persuasion: Selected Findings of Research on the Sale of\r\n U. S. War Bonds,”Human Relation, N0. 2, pp. 253-268.\r\nCimbala Stephen J. (1988),“What Kind of War \r\n Plan?”Airpower Journal, No. Summer.\r\n <Http://www.airpower.maxwell.af.mil/ \r\n airchronicles/apj/apj88/sum88/cimbala.html>\r\nCishan, Ruan (2003),“11.‘Soft Hegemony’Hurts Sino-\r\n U.S.Relation,”Chinese Education and Society, Vol. 36 , \r\n No. 1, pp. 79-81.\r\nCooper, Eunica and Marie Jahoda (1947),“The Evasion of \r\n Propaganda: How Prejudiced Peopler Respond to Anti-\r\n Propaganda Propaganda,”Journal of Psychology, No. 23, \r\n pp. 11-26.\r\nDehghanpisheh, Babak (2007),“Apocalypse Now; Iraqi Forces \r\n Struggle in the Battle Against a Shadowy Shiite Death \r\n Cult. And that`s Only a Small Part of the Problems \r\n They`re facing in Iraq`s south,”Newsweek , Vol. 149 ,\r\n No. 6, p.36.\r\nDeng, Ju-Long (1982),“Control Problems of Grey Systems,”\r\n System and Control Letters, Vol. 1, No. 5, pp. 288-294.\r\nDesouza, Kevin C. (2001),“Intelligence Agents for \r\n Competitive Intelligence:Survey of \r\n Application,”Competitive Intelligence Review, Vol. 12, \r\n No. 4, pp. 57-63.\r\nDoran, Michael S. (2003),“Palestine, Iraq, and American \r\n Strategy,”Foreign Affairs, Vol. 82, No.1, pp. 19-24.\r\nEdwards, Ward (1954),“The Theory of Decision \r\n Making,”Psychological Bulletin, Vol. 51, No. 4, pp. 380-\r\n 417.\r\nFarradane, Jason (1980),“Knowledge, Information, and \r\n Information science,”Journal of Information Science, \r\n Vol. 2, No. 2, pp. 70-88.\r\nFrigo, Mark L. (2003),“Strategy or Execution,”Strategic \r\n Finance, Vol. 84, No. 9, pp.9-11.\r\nGoodman, Allan (1984),“Dateline Langley: Fixing the \r\n Intelligence Mess,”Foreign Policy, No. 57, pp. 161-179.\r\nHaddock, Seigfried C. (2006),“The Dangers of \r\n Unilateralism,”NWSA Journal, Vol. 18,No. 3, pp. 23-33.\r\nHall, Stuart (1980),“Culture Studies: Two \r\n Paradigms,”Media Culture and Society, No. 2, pp. 57-72.\r\nHammarstrom Mats (1995),“Theory-Building in the Study of \r\n Crises,”Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 32, No. 2, pp. \r\n 233-251.\r\nHermann, Margaret G. and Thomas Preston (eds.) (2001),“Who\r\n Leads Matters The Effects of Powerful \r\n Individual,”International Studies Review, Vol. 3, No. 2,\r\n pp.83-131.\r\nHolzman, Franklyn D. (1989),“Politics and Guesswork: CIA \r\n and DIA Estimates of Soviet Military depending,” \r\n International Security, Vol. 14, No. 2, pp. 101-131.\r\nJabar, Faleh A. (2003), “Opposing War Is Good, but Not\r\n Good Enough,” The Progressive, Vol. 67, No. 1, pp. 20-23.\r\nJervis, Robert (2003),“Understanding the Bush Doctrine,” \r\n Political Science Quarterly,Vol. 118, No. 3, pp. 365-388.\r\nKassop, Nancy (2003),“The War Power and Its Limits ,” \r\n Presidential Studies Quarterly,Vol. 33, No. 3, pp. 509-\r\n 520.\r\nKennan, George (1947),“The Sources of Soviet Conduct,” \r\n Foreign Affair, Vol. 25, No. 4,pp. 566-582.\r\nKnorr, Klaus (1964),“Failures in Nation Intelligence \r\n Estimate: The Case of the Cuba Missiles,”World Politics,\r\n No. 16, April, pp. 455-475.\r\nKovacs, Amos (1997),“Using Intelligence,”Intelligence and \r\n National Security, Vol. 12, No. 4, p. 145-164.\r\nKuncken, Jennifer (2006),“A Brief Guide to Islam,”Library \r\n Journal, Vol. 131, No. 6, p.99.\r\nLebow, Richard N. (1987),“Is Crisis Management Always \r\n Possible?”Political Science Quarterly, Vol. 102, No. 2, \r\n pp. 181-192.\r\nLijphart, Arend (1971),“Comparative Politics and the \r\n Comparative Method,”American Political Science Review, \r\n No. 3, pp. 682-693.\r\nLyles, Marjorie A. and Ian I. Mitroff (1980),“ \r\n Organizational Problem Formulation: An Empirical \r\n Study,”Administrative Science Quarterly, Vol. 25, No. 1,\r\n pp. 102-119.\r\nMiller, George A. (1956),“The Magical Number Seven, Plus \r\n or Minus Two: Some Limits on Our Capacity for Processing\r\n Information,”The Psychological Review, No. 63, pp. 81-97.\r\nNordland, Rod and Babak Dehghanpisheh (2007 ),“Surge of \r\n Suicide Bombers; The Iraq War Has Turned into A \r\n Veritable `Martyr` Factory, Unlike Any Seen in Previous \r\n Conflicts ,”Newsweek, Vol. 150, No. 7, pp. 30-33.\r\nPhilip, Gordon (2002),“NATO After 11 September,”Surival, \r\n Vol. 43, No. 4, pp. 89-106.\r\nPrescott, John E. and Craig Fleisher (1991),“SCIP: Who We\r\n Are and What We Do,”Competitive Intelligence Review, \r\n Vol. 2, No. 1, pp. 22-26.\r\nRice, Condoleezza (2000),“Promoting the National \r\n Interest,”Foreign Affairs, Vol. 79,No. 1, pp. 45-62.\r\nRothschild, Emma (1995),“What is Security,”Daedalus, Vol.\r\n 124, N0. 3, pp. 53-99.\r\nRumsfeld, Donald H. (2002 ),“Transforming the Military,” \r\n Foreign Affair, Vol. 81, No.3, pp. 20-32.\r\nSaaty, Thomas L. (1986),“Axiomatic Foundation of Analytic \r\n Hierarchy Process,” Management Science, Vol. 32, No. 7, \r\n pp. 778-790.\r\nSapir, Edward (1935),“Communication, ”Encyclopedia of \r\n Social Sciences, Vol. 1, No. 4, pp. 75- 80.\r\nSchrodt, Philip A., Shannon G. David and Judith L. Weddle \r\n (1994),“Political Science: KED-A Program for the Maching \r\n Coding of Event Data,”Social Science Computer Review, \r\n Vol. 12, No. 3, pp. 561-588.\r\nSchwenk, Charles R. (1984),“Cognitive Simplification \r\n Processes in Strategic Decision-Making,”Strategic \r\n Management Journal, Vol. 5, No. 2, pp. 111-128.\r\nSmith, Gerald F. (1989),“Managerial Problem \r\n Identification,”OMEGA, Vol. 17, No. 1, pp. 27-36.\r\nSproles, Claudene (2007),“Muslim Sects and Militant \r\n Groups,”Choice, Vol. 45, No. 1, pp. 43-55.\r\nStephen, Soto (2001),“Competitive Intelligence Methods for\r\n System and Cultural Analysis,”Competitive Intelligence \r\n Review, Vol. 12, No. 3, pp. 31-34.\r\nStuckey, Mary E. and Joshua R. Ritter (2007),“George Bush, \r\n <Human Rights>, and American Democracy,”Presidential\r\n Studies Quarterly , Vol. 37, No. 4, pp. 646-667.\r\nTalbott, Strobe (1996 ),“Democracy and the National \r\n Interest,”Foreign Affairs, Vol. 75, No. 6, pp. 47-64.\r\nTaylor, Ronald N. (1975),“Perception of Problem \r\n Constraints ,”Management Science,Vol. 22, No. 1, pp. 22-\r\n 29.\r\nTheil, Stefan and Christopher Dickey (2003),“Saddam`s \r\n Bunkers,”Newsweek ,Vol. 141,No. 14, pp. 48- 49. \r\nThomas, Stafford T. (1988),“Assesing Current Intelligence \r\n Studies,”International Journal of Intelligence and \r\n Counterintelligence, Vol. 2, No. 2, pp. 217-244.\r\nTroy, Thomas F. (1991),“The‘Correct’Definition of \r\n Intelligence,”International Journal of Intelligence and \r\n Counterintelligence, Vol. 5, No. 4, pp. 433-454.\r\nUngson, Gerardo R. and Daniel N. Braunstein (eds.) \r\n (1981),“Managerial Information processing: A Research \r\n Review,”Administrative Science Quarterly, Vol. 26, No. \r\n 1,pp. 116-138.\r\nWolffe, Richard and Michael Hirsh (2003),“ War and \r\n Consequences,”Newsweek, Vol. 141, No. 5, pp. 22-29.\r\nYusin, Maksim (2003),“Donald Rumsfeld`s Three \r\n Fronts, ”The Current Digest of the Post-Soviet Press, \r\n Vol. 54, No. 52, pp. 3-13.\r\nZadeh, Lisa A. (1965),“Fuzzy Set,” Information Control, \r\n No. 8, pp. 338-353.\r\nZagotta, Robert and Don Robbinson (2002),“Key to \r\n Successful Strategy Execution,”Journal of Business \r\n Strategy, Vol. 23, No. 1, pp. 30-34.\r\nZunde, Pranas (1981),“Information Theory and Information \r\n Science,”Information Processing and Management, Vol. 17,\r\n No. 6, pp. 341-347.\r\nNewspaper & Magazine\r\nAlbright, Madeleine E. (2002),“Where Iraq Fits in the War\r\n on Terror,”The New York Times, September 20. \r\n <http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html>\r\nAli, Ahmed (2007),“IRAQ: Death Threats and Attacks Force \r\n Familes to Flee,”Global Information Network, November \r\n 6. \r\n <http://www.globalinfo.org/default.asp>\r\nAndrew, Buncombe (2003),“Cheney Under Pressure to Quit \r\n Over False War Evidence,”The INDEPENDENT, July 16.\r\n <http://news.independent.co.uk/world/politics/\r\n article96352.ece>\r\nBorger, Julian (2003),“Iraq: After the War: France Will \r\n Pay for Opposition Says Powell: Administration`s Dove \r\n Suggests Trouble Ahead as new UN Confrontation Looms \r\n Over Sanctions ,”Guardian Unlimited, April 24.\r\n <http://www.guardian.co.uk/frontpages/story/o,,1928039,\r\n oo.html>.\r\nBowers, Faye,“Driving Forces in War-Wary Nations: The \r\n Stances of France, Germany,Russia and China Are Colored \r\n by Economic and National Interests,”Christian Science \r\n Monitor, February 25.\r\n <http://www.mondotimes.com/2/topics/5/news/1/2802>.\r\nBumiller, Elisabeth and David E. Sanger (2006),“Traces of \r\n Terror: The President; Bush, as Terror Inquiry Swirls, \r\n Seeks Cabinet Post on Security,”The New York Times, June\r\n 7. \r\n <http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html> \r\nCalabresi, Massimo andTimothy J. Burger (2003),“Who Lost\r\n the WMD,”Time, June 29.\r\n <http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,\r\n 1101030707-461781,00.html>\r\nColachal, Abdul R. (2007),“Dynamism in Russia-China \r\n Relations: A study,”What Really Happened. Com, October \r\n 14.\r\n <http://www.whatreallyhappened.com/>\r\nDan, Balz and Abramowitz Michael (2006),“President Tries \r\n to Win Over a War-Weary Nation,”The Washington Post, \r\n September 12.\r\n <http://www.washingtonpost.com/>\r\nDepalma, Anthony (2003),“Threats and Responses: An \r\n Overview: March 19-20, 2003; Starting a War, Appealing \r\n for Surrender and Pulling Out the Networks,”The New\r\n York Times, March 20. \r\n <http: //query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html>\r\nDiamond, John and Susan Page (2003),“Bush Signals He May\r\n Skip U. N.; Plan: Issue Iraq an Ultimatum Instead,”USA\r\n TODAY, Mar 14.\r\n <http://wap.usatoday.com/>\r\nElliott, Michael (2002),“The Selling of the President`s \r\n War,”Time, November 11.\r\n <http://www.time.com/time/columnist/elliott/\r\n article/0,9565,389085,00.html>\r\nEwen, MacAskill and Borge Julian (2006),“Iraq Mayhem \r\n Triggers Hunt for Exit Strategy in US and UK,”Guardian \r\n Unlimited, October 21.\r\n <http://www. guardian.co.uk/frontpages/story/o,, \r\n 1928039,oo.html>\r\nFitzGerald, Frances (2002),“Threat of War: How Hawks \r\n Captured the White House: When the Soviet Threat \r\n Vanished, the Purpose of American Foreign Policy Seemed \r\n to Go with It-Until September 11 and Iraq`s Regime,” \r\n Guardian Unlimited,September 24.\r\n <http://www.guardian. co.uk/ frontpages/ \r\n story/o,,,oo.html>\r\nLemann, Nicholas (2002),“The Next World Order: The Bush \r\n Administration May Have a Brand New Doctrine of \r\n Power,”The New Yorker, February 1.\r\n <http://www.newyorker.com/fact/content/?02401fa_FACT1>\r\nLemann, Nicholas (2003),“After Iraq: The Plan to Remake \r\n the Middle East,”The New Yorker, February 17.\r\n <http://www.newyorker.com/fact/content/?02401fa_FACT1>\r\nIgnatieff, Michael (2003),“Mission: Rebuild Iraq, Looking \r\n for Leader Amid the Ashes,”The New York Times Magazine, \r\n January 5.\r\n <http://www.nytimes.com/pages/magazine/>\r\nMark, Mazzetti (2006),“Spy Agencies Say Iraq War Worsens \r\n Terrorism Threat,”The New York Times, September 24.\r\n <http://www.nytimes.com/page/todayspaper/index.html>\r\nMelloan, George (2004),“Why No WMDs? Saddam Was Playing a\r\n Shell Game,”The Wall Street Journal, February 3.\r\n <http://online.wsj.com/article/\r\n SB118289311361649057.html>\r\nMiller, Greg (2003),“Showdown with Iraq; Democracy Domino \r\n Theory `Not Credible`; A State Department Report Disputes \r\n Bush`s Claim that Ousting Hussein Will Spur Reforms in \r\n The Mideast, Intelligence Officials Say,”Los Angeles \r\n Times, March 14.\r\n <http://www.latimes.com/>\r\nMulrine, Anna (2006),“`Civil War` or Not?; While U. S. \r\n Pols and Pundits Debate Labels, Iraqis Fear Their Country\r\n is Sliding Deeper into The Abyss,”U. S. News & World \r\n Report, December 11.\r\n <http://www.britannica. com/eb/article-9074508/US-News-\r\n World-Report>\r\nNeary, Lynn (2003),“Analysis: Intelligence Analysts React \r\n to Colin Powell`s Speech,”All Things \r\n Considered ,February 6.\r\n <http://www.npr.org/templates/rundowns/rundown.php?\r\n prgId=2>\r\nO`brien, Timothy L. (2003),“Threats and Responses: \r\n Monitoring; U. N. Group Finds No Hussein-Al Qaeda \r\n link,”The New York Times, June 27.\r\n <http://www.nytimes. com/ page/todayspaper/index.html>\r\nPage, Susan (2005),“Bush Poll Ratings Slide to New \r\n Low,”USA Today, November 15.\r\n <http:// wap.usatoday.com/>\r\nPincus, Walter and Dana Priest (2003),“Analysts Cite \r\n Pressure on Iraq Judgement,”The Washington Post, June 5. \r\n <http://www.washingtonpost.com/>.\r\nPonnuru, Ramesh (2003),“Getting to The Bottom of \r\n This `Neo` Nonsense: Before you Talk about Conservatives,\r\n Know What You`re Doing,”National Review, June 16.\r\n <http://www. sourcewatch.org /index.php?\r\n title=National_Review>\r\nPonnuru, Ramesh (2003),“Getting to the Bottom of This Neo,\r\n Nonsense: Before you Talk about Conservatives, Know What\r\n You`re Doing,”Nation Review, June 16.\r\n <http:// www. sourcewatch. org/index.php?\r\n title=National_Review>\r\nSpratt, John (2007),“Monitoring War Costs,”Knight Ridder \r\n Tribune Business News. January 22.\r\n <http://www.dialogselect.com/business/forms/\r\n BusIndustryFinancialAll.html>\r\n(2002), The White House,“President Bush Delivers \r\n Graduation Speech at West Point,” June 1.\r\n <http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/ \r\n 2002/06/20020601-3.html>.\r\n(2002),“Fact Sheet:Redesigning DOJ to Prevent Future Acts\r\n of Terrorism,”U. S. Department of State, May 29. \r\n <http://www.state.gov/> \r\n(2002),“Mueller Cites Changes in FBI to Enhance Fight on\r\n Terrorism Director Testifies before Joint House-Senate \r\n Intelligence Panel,”U. S. Department of State, October\r\n 17.\r\n <http://www.state.gov/> \r\n(2002),“Report: U. N. Working on Secret Contingency Plans\r\n for War; Iraq: CIA Allowed to Direct Inspectors,”Al \r\n Bawaba , December 23.\r\n <http://www.albawaba.com/en/news/>.\r\n(2002), The White House,“President Delivers State of the\r\n Union Address,”January 29.\r\n <http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/ \r\n 2002/01/20020129-11.html>\r\n(2003), The White House,“President Discuss The Future of \r\n Iraq,”February 23.\r\n <http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/\r\n 2003/02/20030226-11.html>\r\n(2003),“Was the Intelligence Cooked?”The New York Times,\r\n Jun 8.\r\n <http:// www. nytimes. com/page/todayspaper/index.html>\r\n(2003),“Newspapers Across Europe Look Nervously on as a US-\r\n led War Against Iraq Seems Increasingly Inevitable,”BBC,\r\n March 18.\r\n <http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/2859359.stm>\r\n(2003), The White House,“Remarks by The Vice President to\r\n The American Society of News Editors,”April 9.\r\n <http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/\r\n 2002/04/20020411-7.html>.\r\n(2004),“Judging Intelligence; The Senators` Views and \r\n Excerpts from the Report on Iraq Assessments,”The New \r\n York Times, July 10.\r\n <http://www.nytimes. com/page/ todayspaper/ index. html\r\n >.\r\n(2006),“Reply Letters and Emails: US Elections: The New \r\n Republic,”Guardian Unlimited, October13.\r\n <http://www.guardian.co.uk/frontpages/story/\r\n o,,1928039,oo.html>\r\n(2007),“American Casualties and `Bravery` Plummet Iraqi \r\n Civilian Casualties and Resistance Rise,”Free Iraq, \r\n October 26.\r\n <http://abutamam.blogspot.com/> | 描述: | 博士 國立政治大學 國家發展研究所 91261502 |
資料來源: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0912615021 | 資料類型: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | 學位論文 |
Files in This Item:
| File | Size | Format | |
|---|---|---|---|
| index.html | 115 B | HTML2 | View/Open |
Google ScholarTM
Check
Items in DSpace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.