從台灣的公投、新憲議題看美國小布希政府的兩岸政策調整

Abstract

本論文討論2002年中以後陳總統提出公投、新憲議題對美國的兩岸政策與兩岸關係的影響。研究發現，陳總統的憲改工程具有使中華民國憲法「在地化」或「去中國化」的作用。在陳總統不計代價推動公投的過程中，台美互信已經受到傷害，最後促使美國調整兩岸政策，使其內容更加明確與具體。在未來幾年內，美國將密切關注台灣可能採取的獨立步驟，並做出立即、預防性的回應。唯陳總統已明確表示第二階段的憲改將在現有體制內進行，未來憲改不致引起台美關係的公開緊張；唯「台灣正名」問題仍然可能繼續成為考驗台美互信的試金石。

This Article discusses the impact of Taiwan President Chen`s proposal for a ”public referendum” and a ”new constitution” based on US cross-strait policy and cross-strait relations. The research outcome finds that if finishes, President Chen`s constitutional reengineering project will perform the function of localizing or desinicizing the Constitution of the Republic of China. During the process, while president Chen pushed forward the referendum at all costs, the mutual confidence between Taiwan and the United States have suffered, finally urging the US government to adjust cross-strait policy to made it more explicit and specific. In the years ahead, the United States will carefully watch Taiwan for possible steps toward independence, and will make instant, preventive responses. For President Chen has unequivocally expressed that the constitutional reform during the second phase will be conducted within the existing legal framework, and that the coming constitutional reform would not create overt tension in Taiwan-US relations. However the campaign for rectifying the name of Taiwan may still become a touchstone for testing the mutual confidence between Taiwan and the United States.