歐盟東歐成員國加入貨幣同盟的策略與得失：經濟文獻回顧與模擬預測

Abstract

發生匯率與金融危機的風險。

Some economists believe that even if the Maastricht convergence criteria is indispensable, the European Monetary Union should at least invite Central and Eastern European countries to participate in economic policy coordination as soon as possible, on the basis of the theory of endogeneity and the experience of the ERM crisis in the 1990s. The purposes of this research are 1）to provide an economic literature review about the issue of EMU enlargement and 2）to determine whether a bilateral coalition of an accession country and the European Central Bank would eliminate the risk of an ERM II crisis occurring during the transitional period. The simulation results indicate that, at this moment, the Czech Republic is qualified under specific simulated shocks. By means of cooperation with the European Central Bank, its interest rate differential with respect to the euro area can be maintained at a lower level and therefore decreases the risk of suffering from substantial capital flows during the transition to the EMU.